Nevada sees first drop in population since 1910-20

For the first time in decades, maybe in almost a century, Nevada has shrunk.

State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle reported his preliminary state population estimates Wednesday, and they say the Silver State lost 27,677 people from July 2008 to July 2009.

This comes after many decades of growth, including 19 years in a row where Nevada was the nation's fastest- growing state. Hardcastle said he has solid, yearly data all the way back to the early 1960s, and the state grew every year. The last time he can find a population loss was in the decade of 1910 to 1920.

So why are we losing population now?

Most likely, the economy chased people away, or at least persuaded some people not to move here.

Though there has been some migration to Nevada, there have been more people leaving.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that Texas is now the nation's fastest-growing state. Nevada held that title from the late 1980s until a few years ago, when Arizona passed it up.

There were only four Nevada counties, all of them rural, that gained population from 2008 to 2009, Hardcastle said. Both the Reno and Las Vegas metropolitan areas lost people. The Reno area was hit a little harder, percentage-wise, but Clark County lost more people, about 15,000.

Hardcastle reports that the state had 2,711,056 people at last count, which is more than twice as many as were here in 1990. The vast majority -- about 72 percent -- live in Clark County.

The numbers matter because the state uses the demographer's population estimates to distribute tax money. But Hardcastle said the state uses a five-year average, so a small shift one year in population shouldn't affect the distribution much.

He said it was too early to say whether the shrinking will continue.

"We're dependent on the recovery of the nation," he said.

Last week, the Center for Business and Economic Development at UNLV forecast a slow recovery for Nevada, noting the state had the second highest unemployment rate in the nation.

Clark County demographer Jon Wardlaw said the county estimated a slight rise in population this year because the data collection methods it uses are a little different than those used by the state demographer.

Either way, he said, growth is flat or nonexistent.

He said in the long term, he expects Nevada to rebound and start growing again.

The shorter term is far less certain, though Wardlaw said he does not expect Nevada's population to keep shrinking.

"It's not expected to last more than a year," he said. "It may improve next year."

Contact reporter Richard Lake at rlake@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0307.