2010 — Nevada will be competitive

Larry J. Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and a talking head on cable news shows, offers a complete analysis of the 2010 Senate races under the headline "A Three-Peat for Democrats or Comeback for the GOP?"

If you're a political geek with little else going on in your life, you can find the full report here.

Since I am no geek but it's part of my job to read these things, I can save you the time. According to Sabato, Harry Reid is vulnerable and his re-election bid could be "competitive."

To which the people of the Silver State said: "Duh!"

Reid's negatives are extraordinarily high. In the rural counties he's the Devil incarnate. He's a full beat out of step with Nevada as he's towed the line for the national Democratic Party. He's allegedly a pro-life Mormon, but you can hardly tell it in his day-to-day political life as he falls in line with the pro-abortion agenda of the Party of Death.

However, the Republican Party has yet to find a worthy candidate. For as weakened as Harry might be, he's stronger than everyone I've heard mentioned seriously so far. He's got money. He's got big union support in the south. He'll have the mighty President Obama in his corner. And he's a no-holds-barred competitor. If anyone competitive gets in, you can count on this race getting dirty from day one.

Here's Sabato's report on Reid:

"Harry Reid (D-NV): Even Senator Harry Reid's fiercest supporters understand that 2010 will be a genuine re-election contest for the Senate Majority Leader. Partly, it is his leadership position that puts Reid in some jeopardy. Despite Barack Obama's healthy victory here in 2008, Nevada is still a closely divided state, and partisanship is deeply felt by many in this gambling mecca. Reid might well have a more conservative voting record were he simply the senior senator from Nevada, but his job is to advocate for the Democratic Senate Caucus position--often more liberal than his state. Reid had a very close call in 1998, winning re-election by a mere 428 votes out of more than 425,000 cast. The near-winner is now his Senate partner, John Ensign (R-NV), who captured the other Senate seat in 2000. Still, both potential Republican candidates for Reid's seat were badly weakened in 2008. Congressman John Porter (R-NV) was defeated for re-election to his House seat, and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R-NV) is in some serious legal trouble, having been indicted for allegedly mismanaging a large college savings fund while he was state treasurer. Krolicki insists the charges are trumped up and politically inspired. The GOP Governor, Republican Jim Gibbons, is scandal-drenched and enormously unpopular. Second-term U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV) is a possible fallback candidate. LEANS DEMOCRATIC BUT POTENTIALLY COMPETITIVE."