Democrats gain young registrants

CARSON CITY -- If the future belongs to the young, then Nevada's political future could be dominated by the Democratic Party.

At least, that is what a report from the secretary of state's office indicates.

For the first time, the secretary of state this week released statistics that show the numbers of registered voters broken down by age groups.

Democrats hold a registration advantage in every age group, including senior citizens. But they have the biggest lead among younger voters.

The younger the voters, the more likely they are Democrats.

In the 18 to 24 age group, for example, Democrats have 54,192 registered voters compared with 31,405 Republicans, or 45 percent of the total registered voters for Democrats versus 26 percent for Republicans. That's a 19 percentage point difference.

Among voters ages 25 to 34 in Nevada, 75,877 are registered Democrats compared with 52,138 Republicans, a 13 percentage point difference.

In the other age groups, the Democrats' lead ranges from 3 to 5 percentage points.

Overall in Nevada, Democrats hold an 80,666-voter registration advantage. Just two years ago, Republicans led Democrats in registration by 6,998 voters.

But the surge to register Democratic does not mean people will turn out in huge numbers to vote for Democrats in November, said Fred Lokken, a registered Republican who teaches political science at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno.

Lokken said that traditionally a lower percentage of younger people vote in elections than older age groups.

He said he expects much of the Democratic boom is due to the enthusiasm generated by Democrat Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

"They may be motivated by the national presidential race and that would help Democrats in close state races," he added. "It may help Jill Derby in her race with (Rep.) Dean Heller (2nd Congressional District)."

He credits the Obama campaign and state Democrats for doing a great job in registering voters and wonders what happened with the registration efforts of the Republican Party in Nevada, led by former state Sen. Sue Lowden.

Zach Moyle, state Republican executive director, said he is disappointed that his party has fallen behind the Democrats in registered voters. He said the GOP has been more selective in its registration efforts, trying to register people who will show up at the polls.

"Younger voters traditionally don't turn out," he said. "In the end it is about whether they turn out. Their biggest lead is among voters 18 to 24. Something happens when these kids turn 25. They become Republicans."

Moyle said he remains confident that Republican presidential nominee John McCain will win Nevada in November, noting all polls show a close race.

But if it is not a traditional year in which a much higher percentage of Republicans turn out than Democrats, Lokken said November could be a "realigning election" in Nevada.

The age report shows that the generational differences already have made a difference in some counties. Two years ago, Washoe County was predominantly Republican with the GOP holding a 17,000 registered voter advantage. That lead has sunk to 1,894 voters (88,828 Republicans versus 86,934 Democrats).

But among voters 18 to 24 in Washoe County, 10,192 now are Democrats compared with 6,588 Republicans.

Carson City remains a Republican stronghold, with Republicans holding a 10,824 to 8,819 registered voter advantage.

But in the 18-24 age group, Democrats lead 707 to 686 in the capital city.

As a professor, Lokken said he has watched time and again as his students become excited about a candidate and then suddenly are disenchanted with politics when their choice loses.

"If Barack Obama doesn't win, they are going to be disillusioned," Lokken said. "I have seen it over and over. 'None of the people I wanted won. Why vote?' "

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.