Ensign re-election fight to be uphill, poll shows

WASHINGTON -- Embattled Republican Sen. John Ensign faces a steep climb to re-election, trailing every Nevada Democrat likely to consider challenging him in 2012, a poll released Thursday shows.

The survey by Public Policy Polling is the first comprehensive look at the U.S. Senate election, which already is generating significant interest.

The poll shows Ensign's job approval rating at only 35 percent, with 50 percent of Nevada voters disapproving. Further, 59 percent want him to step aside while 26 percent want him to run again.

Among Democratic challengers, Ensign trails Rep. Shelley Berkley 42 percent to 45 percent; state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto 42 percent to 44 percent; and Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller 39 percent to 40 percent.

Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who is an independent but would probably run as a Democrat, leads Ensign 45 percent to 35 percent.

"Their leads over Ensign would be more likely to increase than anything else if any of them was actually to enter the race and become better known across the state," said Tom Jensen, a pollster with the Democratic-leaning firm based in North Carolina.

Alternately, Republican Rep. Dean Heller might fare better if he were the party's 2012 candidate for Senate, according to the poll. Heller "would start out with an initial lead over all of the Democrats, ranging anywhere from 7 to 13 points. It's 45-38 over Goodman, 46-37 over Masto, 46-34 over Miller and 51-38 over Berkley," Jensen said.

Ensign has declared his candidacy for a third Senate term, after acknowledging in June 2009 he had an extramarital affair with his campaign treasurer who also was a close family friend and the wife of one of his top aides.

Ensign's handling of the affair and its aftermath triggered investigations by the Senate Ethics Committee, the Justice Department and the Federal Election Commission. The Justice Department and the FEC inquiries have ended, but the Senate investigation continues.

Some Republicans view Ensign's poll numbers with concern. The party has set its sights on capturing the Senate in the 2012 elections and hopes not to have to play defense in Nevada, they said.

Not commenting on the poll specifics, Ensign spokeswoman Jennifer Cooper said the senator "is focused on earning back the trust of Nevadans and plans on running for re-election."

Heller did not comment. Berkley said the survey would have little effect on her decision to run. She has said she would decide by mid-February.

The survey of 932 Nevada voters was Monday to Wednesday of this week and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.