Initial early voting numbers in Las Vegas election strong

Early voters surged to the polls in Las Vegas over the weekend, possibly indicating a high turnout for the city's mayoral contest, at least by municipal election standards.

On Saturday and Sunday, 4,196 people voted early in city elections, compared to 2,389 who voted on the first weekend of early voting in the March primary.

City elections usually draw dismal turnout percentages -- in the teens, or even single digits. The primary drew 21.8 percent participation, which was higher than usual for Las Vegas.

But it's too early to draw conclusions, campaign staffers cautioned.

"There's certainly some indication that people have been following the race, to have that many people show up in the first two days," said Gary Gray, campaign manager for mayoral candidate Chris Giunchigliani. Still, he added, "I always hate to characterize the first two days of anything as being a trend at all."

Bradley Mayer, who is managing mayoral candidate Carolyn Goodman's campaign, said the numbers initially surprised him.

"My first reaction was, 'Wow. That's a higher turnout,' " he said. "But when I broke it down and analyzed it, it conformed to my expectations of the type of voter who'll show up."

Early voting continues until June 3. The general election is June 7.

In addition to a new mayor, voters will choose a new City Council representative in Ward 3 and vote for two municipal judgeships.

The mayor's race in the primary was a free-for-all, with an 18-candidate field.

After Giunchigliani and Goodman made the runoff, the question was whether supporters of other candidates would stay engaged or just stay at home.

"Would there be a drop-off from 18 going to two?" Mayer said. "I think the question has been answered. No, there's not going to be."

Gray agreed: "I think most of them who voted in the primary election will come back and vote in the general."

He looked to a partisan divide as a good sign for Giunchigliani, a Clark County commissioner and former state lawmaker with a strong Democratic base.

"In every ward in the city, Democrats are in the lead in voting," Gray said.

Democrats also have a registration edge in the city, but "it's not the registration, it's the voters," he said.

Dueling mayoral polls have been circulated by the campaigns.

Giunchigliani's has her neck and neck with Goodman, while Goodman's shows her with a wide margin of victory.

Gray said Goodman's poll is too optimistic about who will show up to vote.

"If you ask people who are actually voting, who voted in the primary and are likely to vote in this race, you get a much different result," he said.

Mayer countered that there is nothing "earth shattering" about the turnout so far.

In voter registrations, the city has 46.5 percent Democrats and 32.5 percent Republicans. The turnout over the weekend was 48 percent Democratic and 36 percent GOP.

Both groups are outperforming their registrations, but the Republicans are doing so at a higher rate so far, Mayer said, which is consistent with past city elections, where older and wealthier residents are reliable voters.

Goodman, founder and former president of the Meadows School and wife of term-limited Mayor Oscar Goodman, should do well with those voters, Mayer predicted.

"This type of higher turnout bodes well for us," Mayer said, adding the caveat that turnout numbers could go up and down throughout early voting.

"I like that voters are turning out, people are engaging in the voting process," Mayer said. "But it's only two days in, and there's still a long way to go."

Contact reporter Alan Choate at achoate@ reviewjournal.com or 702-229-6435.