Nevada energized campaigns

Nevada Democrats and Republicans caucused early this year because the state supposedly looked like America. As the dust settled from Super Tuesday, America looked a lot like Nevada.

"Nevada represented an early signal of what has become a real theme of this race so far," said William Galston, a political scholar at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, D.C. "The Clinton name and the Clinton history are worth a fair amount to the Latino community. There are some real bonds there. That's been true in every state without exception since."

Large Hispanic turnout contributed to a surprisingly decisive victory for Hillary Clinton in California's Democratic primary, Galston said. That was one of several trends that originated in Nevada and continued in Tuesday's nearly national primary.

The Democratic National Committee moved Nevada's presidential contest into the prestigious calendar space shared by Iowa and New Hampshire on the rationale that the Silver State reflects the nation's diversity more than those two, which are sparsely populated and overwhelmingly white.

Democrat Barack Obama, who did well in rural and Northern Nevada, prevailed in many rural and red states. Republican Mitt Romney, who captured Nevada by a large margin on Jan. 19, did well in other Western states, even giving John McCain a run for his money in his home state of Arizona.

The post-Super Tuesday landscape finds McCain with a strong advantage, but Romney and Mike Huckabee vowing to stay in the race and the Republican Party facing an identity crisis.

On the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are locked in a tight struggle, with neither having won enough national convention delegates to sew up the nomination.

Had Clinton not won Nevada, she might be in much worse shape, Galston said.

"The Nevada caucuses did alter the momentum of the race to some extent," he said. "After Senator Obama's very, very impressive showing in Iowa, it was important for Senator Clinton to show she had regained her equilibrium. The results in Nevada contributed to that."

Clinton's Nevada supporters saw good signs in Tuesday's results.

"Nevada was the first time it was evident that she had a coalition that would deliver large states with diverse populations to her column," said Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, Clinton's Nevada chairman. That bodes well for her in upcoming delegate-rich states such as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he said.

Reid said Clinton also demonstrated strength in Western states, winning Arizona and apparently narrowly beating Obama in New Mexico, in addition to California and Nevada.

Obama, however, won by wide margins in Idaho, Utah and Colorado, noted Billy Vassiliadis, a Las Vegas consultant and Obama supporter. Those victories and others show that he can win crucial swing states in November, Vassiliadis said.

"If you look at where Senator Clinton won -- New York, New Jersey, California -- she's winning in states where Democrats are going to win anyway," he said. "It would take a huge screwup for Democrats to not win those states in the general election. He's winning in places Democrats need to win to win the White House."

Vassiliadis said Obama's personal appearances in rural areas of Nevada helped him win over all kinds of voters, including Republicans and independents, and erode a once-formidable Clinton edge. The campaign stuck to that strategy for Super Tuesday, he said: "I think we learned a lot from Nevada about the kind of impact he can have when people get to see him."

Both campaigns say they are keeping their supporters mobilized for Democratic county conventions around the state on Feb. 23, where the delegates elected Jan. 19 elect delegates to the state Democratic convention in April. That's when 25 of Nevada's 33 delegates are elected.

Based on the precinct caucuses, Obama and Clinton each stand to get 12 of those delegates. The last delegate, representing the 15 rural counties, could swing either way based on the 130 precinct delegates belonging to John Edwards, who has quit the race.

Romney's campaign also is staying active to preserve his lead in the GOP county conventions, Nevada consultant Ryan Erwin said. Among the seven states Romney won Tuesday were Utah, Montana, Colorado and Alaska; he previously had won Wyoming in addition to Nevada.

"McCain is clearly the front-runner, there's no getting around that," Erwin said. "However, this is far from over. Based on the math, in order to outright win the nomination, McCain will have to win more than 70 percent of the remaining delegates. That's a difficult endeavor for anyone."

Exit polling has shown Romney doing well with voters whose top concern is the economy and those most concerned about illegal immigration, he said, giving Romney an edge in economically troubled Ohio and immigration-plagued Texas.

Whoever gets the nomination and however long it takes, Erwin said, it's far from clear the party will rally around its nominee. Huckabee's emphasis on social conservatism and McCain's perceived centrism have exposed fissures in the traditional Republican coalition.

"In many ways, this is a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party," he said. "Whoever ends up with the nomination will have a significant undertaking to pull the other candidates' supporters. I don't think it will be automatic."

McCain, who scored a distant third in the Nevada caucuses, is loathed in some conservative circles. Carson City activist Chuck Muth says he overheard a woman at a Republican event last week saying, "I'd rather slit a vein than vote for John McCain."

But Las Vegas consultant Sig Rogich, a McCain strategist, said McCain "will be able to energize conservatives," including in Nevada.

"He I think will have ample time to come back here and meet the people of this state and outline his thoughts as it pertains to Nevada," Rogich said. "If John McCain is the nominee, and I think he will be, I think those Romney votes go to John McCain. I think those Huckabee votes go to John McCain."

Contact reporter Molly Ball at mball@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2919.