Political Eye: Candidate filing begins for 2012 races

Political March Madness begins today.

And so does handicapping the 2012 political races in Nevada.

Starting at 8 a.m. today and continuing through 5 p.m. March 16, candidates running for nonjudicial offices must file in person for election with the Nevada secretary of state's office or local county and city elections departments, depending on the public office they're seeking.

The official filing period marks the start of the three-month campaign for the June 12 primary, when voters will elect each parties' nominee for the Nov. 6 general election five months later.

There's sure to be some surprise candidates, a twist or two along the trail, and plenty of perennial contenders who show up on the ballot as reliably as garden flowers bloom.

Here's a look at the state of play as filing gets under way:

U.S. SENATE RACE

U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, a Republican, was appointed last May to complete the term of Sen. John Ensign, who resigned in disgrace following an affair and an ethics investigation.

Heller isn't expected to face any serious GOP challengers, although other Republicans can pay the $200 filing fee to give it a go. Frequent contender Ed Hamilton, for example, said he will run as the Republican contender, although in 2010 he ran as a Democrat against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., who won re-election.

U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley, a Democrat, has the backing of Reid and the party establishment and is expected to face Heller in the fall in one of the country's most closely watched Senate contests. Reid chased away one serious Democratic challenger, Las Vegas businessman Byron Georgiou, who dropped out after his life and finances got close media scrutiny thanks to leaked information.

A second serious Democratic contender popped up earlier this year, Barry Ellsworth, a Las Vegas businessman and green energy entrepreneur. Ellsworth said he's running against Berkley because he's angry that Congress passed financial deregulation bills in the late 1990s and early 2000s that set the stage for the home foreclosure crisis and near-collapse of the economy.

A Heller-Berkley face-off in the fall would pit a conservative Republican from Northern Nevada against a liberal-leaning seven-term congresswoman from Southern Nevada.

Polls show such a matchup as a dead heat. The latest by the Retail Association of Nevada gave Heller the edge over Berkley, 47 percent to 44 percent support, a gap within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Feb. 21-23.

Robert Uithoven, a GOP operative, gives the edge to Heller, saying the Republican is likely to win Nevada's 16 rural and Northern Nevada counties, where the GOP is favored, while Berkley will almost certainly win Democrat-heavy Clark County, where 70 percent of the population lives.

"I'm pretty confident he'll win Washoe County, and if he can keep it fairly close in Clark County, then he'll win," said Uithoven, who managed former GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons to victory in 2006 using the same formula. "It's certainly going to be a close race no matter what."

Jim Ferrence, a Democratic operative, said his party is just as sure Berkley will win the Senate seat by turning out more voters as they did in 2008 and 2010 to overwhelm tough opponents.

"The fact is the Democratic Party, on an organizational level, can turn out more people with their get-out-the-vote machine," Ferrence said. "That will overcome the Republicans and any atmospherics."

Democrats are counting on that turnout machine and on President Barack Obama's re-election bid in 2012 to lift the entire ticket, which could help them in congressional and other races.

1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Former U.S. Rep. Dina Titus, a Democrat, is the heavy favorite given the big Democratic Party advantage in the urban Las Vegas district: 52 percent of the electorate to 25 percent for Republicans. Her most serious Democratic opponent, state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, dropped out before filing opened.

At least a couple of Republican newcomers said they plan to file a long-odds bid anyway: Chris Edwards, a former naval officer, and Miguel "Mike" Rodrigues, an elementary school principal.

2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

U.S. Rep. Mark Amodei, a Republican, won the GOP friendly Northern and rural Nevada district in a Sept. 13 special election after Heller resigned the seat to take the Senate appointment. As the incumbent, Amodei would likely have the advantage over any contenders. No serious Democrats have come forward yet after State Treasurer Kate Marshall lost big to Amodei, 58 percent to 36 percent.

3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Heck, a Republican, isn't expected to face any serious GOP challenger for the district that stretches across most of Clark County. He barely beat Titus, the former incumbent, in 2010 in the competitive district where Democratic and Republican voters are about equally represented.

Former Assembly Speaker John Oceguera is Heck's strongest Democratic opponent. He has the backing of the party and other Democratic leaders in Nevada and Washington. At least two other Democrats plan to run: Stephen Frye, a retired doctor, and businessman James Haning II.

Most political handicappers give Heck the edge to win re-election.

4th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Nevada Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford is the Democratic Party's choice to win the state's newest congressional district. It covers parts of urban North Las Vegas in Clark County, a part of Lyon County and all of five other rural counties: Esmeralda, Lincoln, Mineral, Nye and White Pine. State Sen. John Lee, D-North Las Vegas, dropped a primary challenge to Horsford under party pressure.

Horsford should have a general election advantage, since Democrats have a voter registration edge over Republicans in the district of at least 11 percentage points

On the Republican side, the primary promises to be lively. State Sen. Barbara Cegavske, who has the backing of much of the GOP establishment in Nevada, faces Danny Tarkanian in his fourth bid for office. Tarkanian has high name recognition thanks to his previous three political runs, including a failed Senate race in 2010. He also is well known for playing basketball at UNLV under his father and former coach, Jerry Tarkanian, in the 1980s. His mother is Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lois Tarkanian, a Democrat, who could help bring in crossover support.

Dan Schwartz, a Las Vegas businessman, also is seeking the GOP nomination. Kenneth Wegner, a Gulf War veteran who lost to Berkley several times, is expected to run for the new district as well.

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The Nevada Republican Party will have an election of its own April 22 for a new chairman after Amy Tarkanian resigned so she could help her husband, Danny, run for Congress.

The leading candidate is Michael McDonald, a former Las Vegas city councilman running against David Buell, the Washoe County GOP chairman who announced just last week he wanted the job.

Buell said he wants to boost Republican voter registration statewide as he has in Washoe, where the GOP just gained back a slight edge of several thousand voters over Democrats. Statewide, Democrats have about 47,000 more active voters than Republicans, mostly thanks to Clark County.

McDonald is expected to win the chairmanship after weeks of wooing Republicans, especially in Southern Nevada, where 60 percent of the state's Republicans live. Clark County also is the big battleground for 2012, and the chairman needs to be at the head of the fight here, GOP insiders said.

Although McDonald has strong party support, most Las Vegans who have been around for a while remember the former cop getting lots of negative headlines during a public scandal in the 2000s.

At the time, McDonald was a paid consultant at $5,000 a month to Michael Galardi, who was sentenced to 30 months in prison for bribing Clark County commissioners in exchange for votes that benefited his multimillion-dollar strip club empire. Several commissioners also were convicted for taking the money and went to prison in a scandal that rocked Southern Nevada.

McDonald was never indicted in the case, although he said in an interview that investigations were swirling around all public officials at the time, including by the Internal Revenue Service.

"Obviously, they have to investigate everything fully," McDonald said. "But there were so many rumors, innuendos, blatant lies, and everything went out. At the time, it was popular to leak every­thing about the investigations. I immediately said I have nothing to hide. I showed them everything."

In the end, McDonald said he even got an IRS refund after the investigation.

"I'll put my background and record against anybody who's running," said McDonald, who added his past hasn't been an issue as he seeks the GOP job. "At the end of the day, I've disclosed everything."

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow @lmyerslvrj on Twitter.