Poll: Job concerns about business tax

CARSON CITY — What appears to be strong support among voters for a teacher-backed margins tax on business to generate money for public education starts to evaporate when they learn more about the proposal, a new poll released today that was conducted for the Retail Association of Nevada shows.

The statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Nevada conducted Feb. 16-18 shows 58 percent favor the proposal with 39 percent opposed.

But when asked if they agree with one of two statements: that the tax is needed to support education or that it will increase unemployment and cause struggling businesses to fail, the survey shows voters evenly divided at 48 percent.

In a third question, when voters are asked if they agree with the views of supporters of the margins tax — that adding the tax won’t increase prices; or of the opponents — that the tax will be a factor affecting business expansion and hiring, the numbers skew further to 44 percent for supporters compared to 52 percent for opponents.

“For the first time since we’ve been polling in 2009, voters feel that the state is headed in the right direction,” said Bryan Wachter, director of government affairs for the Retail Association, which calls itself the leading advocate for Nevada retailers. “But it is tenuous. They really care about jobs. It’s about how is this particular policy going to affect jobs, and I think no more so than with the margins tax.

“Is this going to harm jobs, is this going to harm diversity, is this going to harm prices; and the answer is overwhelmingly yes,” he said.

The tax petition qualified by the Nevada State Education Association would establish a 2 percent tax on the revenues of companies in excess of $1 million a year. It is now before the Nevada Legislature for possible action but is likely to end up on the ballot in 2014. The tax would bring in an estimated $800 million a year for public education.

Opponents argue it will harm Nevada’s economic recovery.

Jim Denton, a consultant to the Retail Association, said the survey also shows that voters don’t see the employment situation improving in Nevada anytime soon.

“So there is some concern that you’re not going to see improvement on the jobs picture, and that really covers everything else in this survey,” he said. “Are they concerned about education? Absolutely. Are they concerned about class size? You bet they are. But they are really concerned about anything that could potentially cause job losses.”

The statewide telephone survey conducted for the Retail Association by Public Opinion Strategies included 125 cellphone interviews and has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

The wide-ranging survey touched on a number of issues, from legalizing marijuana to voters’ attitudes toward the protection of marriage provision in the state constitution.

The results on these questions show a real change in the views of Nevada voters over the past decade, Denton said.

Voters were asked if they would favor legalizing marijuana for recreational use if all the money went to education. The result was 56 percent in favor to 42 percent opposed.

When asked about the provision in the Nevada constitution that defines marriage as being between a man and a woman, 54 percent of voters said it should be removed to 43 percent who want it to remain.

The provision was approved by voters in 2002 with more than 67 percent of the vote. In that same year, voters rejected a liberalization of marijuana laws by nearly 61 percent of the vote.

Another example of attitude changes is the question that shows 36 percent of Nevadans believe the state’s gun laws should be tightened, he said. Another 51 percent said no changes are needed, while 9 percent said the laws should be relaxed.

“The demographics in Nevada are clearly changing,” Denton said. “Our population is changing, our thoughts are changing, our politics are changing. It’s not the same Nevada that it was even 10 years ago.

“It’s almost as though Nevada is returning to being the libertarian kind of state it was years ago.”

The survey shows growing optimism about the state’s economy. For the first time since 2010, more voters, 47 percent, said the state is headed in the right direction compared to 42 percent who disagree.

The survey also shows that education has surpassed jobs and the economy as the top priority for the governor and Legislature at 45 percent, with jobs coming in at 41 percent and the economy at 33 percent in the combined choices.

And while education is important, 73 percent of voters also believe it needs significant reforms, compared to 22 percent who say improvements will come with increased funding.

The top public education priority is smaller class sizes, picked by 38 percent of the respondents, followed by teacher salaries at 22 percent.

Other findings in the survey include:

■ Forty-eight percent support the creation of an appeals court in Nevada, while 42 percent are opposed.

■ There is strong support for immigration proposals, with 91 percent favoring a requirement for employers to verify a person’s legal status before hiring, 72 percent favoring residency status for illegal immigrants who arrived as children and 72 percent opposing driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants.

Contact Capital Bureau reporter Sean Whaley at swhaley@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3900.