Registration edge makes Democrats confident

CARSON CITY - Because of their gains in voter registration over the past six months, Democrats could trounce Republicans in Nevada legislative races in Tuesday's general election and gain a veto-proof majority in the state Senate and Assembly.

Democrats now hold a 90,000 registered voter lead over Republicans. Because of that margin, they are the larger party in 15 of the 21 state Senate districts and 29 of the 42 Assembly districts.

Consequently, if voters cast ballots along party lines, and nonpartisans split between the two parties, Democrats would have enough seats to pass tax increases or any other bills during the 2013 legislative session, regardless of what Gov. Brian Sandoval and Republicans want.

But that's not going to happen, insist Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, and David Damore, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Both think the Democrats will fall just short of two-thirds majorities in both the Assembly and the state Senate.

"The registration gains are a good sign for Democrats," Herzik said. "You want to be on that side, up, not down, but it doesn't ensure victory."

Democrats hold an 11-10 lead in the state Senate and a 26-16 margin in the Assembly. That means they need to gain three Senate and two Assembly seats to gain a veto-proof majority.

Neither party has had a two-thirds majority in both houses since 1977.

LIKABILITY WINS ELECTIONS

Herzik expects many Democrats will cross over and vote for Republican legislative candidates, depriving their party of a two-thirds majority.

As an example of the willingness of Democrats to vote for Republicans, he noted how polls show that Republican Danny Tarkanian is ahead of, or at least even with, Democrat Steven Horsford in the race for the new 4th Congressional District seat, even though Democrats hold a double-digit registration lead in that district.

While registration does matter, Herzik said what seems to win Nevada elections - at least in races where voters have sufficient knowledge of the candidates - is the "likability or acceptability" of the candidate, not their political party.

Damore said the legislative races have received little attention during this presidential election year and some people might cast ballots for president and Congress and then leave without marking their choices in down-ticket races.

Mitt Romney might win votes from Democrats, but the Republican legislative candidates won't get a coattail effect if voters ignore their races.

"It is going to be harder for (legislative) Republicans to win with the Democrat voter advantage," Damore said.

Legislative candidates of both parties have shown up at his door and have been sending him bushels of campaign literature in recent months, but Damore detects "more intensity" by the Democrats to win legislative races.

Redistricting also has hurt Republicans' chances, Damore said.

Clark County was awarded a state Senate and an Assembly seat from rural Nevada that had been safe Republican districts. Now they are heavily Democratic districts and are up for grabs.

Republican leaders believed in May that they would win Clark County state Senate seats 5, 6 and 9, Herzik said, but they might lose them all because of the Democrats' registration gains.

ROBERSON STAYS OPTIMISTIC

State Sen. Michael Roberson still says he is optimistic.

He maintains that because of crossover voting and nonpartisan support, Republicans will pick up at least a couple of state Senate seats now held by Democrats and his party will control the upper house in 2013.

If that happens, Roberson would become state Senate majority leader.

"I am very well aware of the registration figures, but two years ago we beat their registration advantages. Barbara Cegavske (Clark County District 8) beat it by 14 percentage points and Joe Hardy (Clark County District 12) beat it by 16 percentage points," Roberson said.

But 2010 was the midterm year for President Barack Obama, and Republicans nationally swept control of the House of Representatives and other races. Now the Democratic registration advantage in Nevada approaches the 100,000 lead they had when Obama won the state by 12 percentage points in 2008.

A political unknown, Roberson took then state Senate District 5 in 2010 with a 2,800-vote victory over incumbent Democrat Joyce Woodhouse. At the time, Democrats held a 1,700 registered voter lead in the district.

This election, Woodhouse is trying to return to the state Senate in a race against Republican Steve Kirk. Because of redistricting and the Democratic registration drive, her party holds a 3,500 registered voter advantage.

"This race will be close, but who controls the Senate is a big deal," Roberson said. "What the Legislature does affects every Nevadan. Do I know for sure we will win? I can make any prediction I want, but we will find out for sure" on Election Night.

IF VETO-PROOF MAJORITY HAPPENS

If Democrats did achieve a two-thirds majority, they could pass tax increases and push any agenda they wanted through the Legislature and over any gubernatorial vetoes.

The Democrats have not been pushing for tax increases this fall, but have been telling voters that they represent the interests of the middle class and emphasizing that something must be done to improve education in Nevada.

They can point to a Kids Count report in July that ranked Nevada dead last in education and near the bottom in the economic well-being of children and families.

While Sandoval has vowed to veto any tax increases, he already has announced his support of continuing $600 million in sales and business taxes that otherwise would expire in July.

Roberson backs continuing those taxes, although in 2011 he voted against any extensions. The Republican state Senate leader also has proposed spending $20 million on programs to help students who are learning the English language.

DENIS: DEMOCRATS CAN'T LOSE

Roberson's counterpart, state Sen. Mo Denis, D-Las Vegas, said Democrats cannot lose Senate District 5, 6 and 9 races in Clark County, because they hold registration leads of 3,500 to 5,000 over Republicans.

Denis anticipates his party will retain state Senate control and pick up seats, maybe even gaining that two-thirds majority.

But Denis said it isn't just the registration advantage that will help his party's legislative candidates, but its volunteers who are working to get voters to the polls.

Republicans cannot match them in the effort to get out the vote, he added.

So far, Denis has been proven right.

More than half of the state's 1.257 million voters voted early or cast absentee ballots. Of every 100 early voters, 44 were Democrats, 37 were Republicans and 19 were nonpartisans or minor party members.

As Herzik said, it is better to be up than down.

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.