State geologist estimates possible earthquake risk

RENO -- Someday Las Vegans will read a headline that states, "2,300 Die From 7.0 Magnitude Earthquake," state Geologist Jon Price predicted.

Price said it is only a matter of time -- although it might be a long time -- before Las Vegas and Reno experience devastating earthquakes the size of the Loma Prieta shaker that struck the San Francisco area in 1989.

Price made his prediction of approximately 2,300 deaths in metropolitan Las Vegas by applying the latest Federal Emergency Management Agency loss-estimate techniques to Nevada. Scenarios on deaths and damages that could result from earthquakes were compiled for 38 Nevada communities. He released the information Tuesday.

He also unveiled a new online map that allows residents to locate earthquake-prone faults in their neighborhoods.

A 7.0 earthquake along a known fault in the Frenchman Mountain area just east of Las Vegas would not only kill about 2,300 people, but also cause an estimated $25 billion in property damage, wreck 60,000 buildings and put 8,100 people in the hospital, he said.

Of course, the chances of such an earthquake occurring in the next 50 years are less than 0.5 percent, according to Price.

But then Wells, in northeastern Nevada, had even less of a chance of experiencing an earthquake than Las Vegas.

And on Feb. 21, 2008, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake rocked Wells and caused $9 million in damage.

A 6.0 magnitude earthquake in the Las Vegas Valley's biggest and most active fault -- the Frenchman Mountain Fault -- would kill about 280 people in Clark County and cause $7.2 billion in damage in the metropolitan area, according to Price's estimates. Besides being state geologist, Price is director of the Bureau of Mines and Geology on the University of Nevada, Reno campus.

FEMA developed a computer model that estimates losses from earthquakes by using current scientific and engineering knowledge and the latest geographic information. Bureau of Mines and Geology staff applied the model to come up with estimates for losses in Nevada.

While only 63 people were killed in the Loma Prieta, or World Series, earthquake on Oct. 17, 1989, the small death toll largely was because the epicenter was far south of the San Francisco-Oakland area in the largely unpopulated Santa Cruz mountains.

Under Price's scenario for 2,300 deaths in metropolitan Las Vegas, the epicenter is just east of the city.

Reno, in an area more affected by California's huge San Andreas Fault, is far more likely than Las Vegas to be wrecked by the next big earthquake.

There is a 15 percent chance a San Francisco size earthquake could devastate Reno in the next 50 years, Price said. About 1,200 people would die in the Reno area, he said.

"The potential for losses can be quite high for many of our communities," Price said.

He emphasized he isn't trying to alarm people with shocking statistics but to advise them to take precautions to prevent their homes from being damaged by the next big one.

For one, don't build on a known earthquake fault. The map shows earthquake activity in every community in the state.

He advises people to strap down large bookcases, computers and big-screen TVs. Such items can fall during minor earthquakes, possibly causing injuries or even deaths.

Much of the damage in Wells occurred because old buildings, constructed with bricks, rocks and masonry material, collapsed in the shaking.

Because of a structural retrofit in recent years, Price noted, the 100-year-old Mackay School of Mines building at UNR actually can move one foot in each direction during an earthquake without suffering significant damage.

Also, modern high-rises have to meet tougher earthquake safety standards that protect the buildings from all but the most severe earthquakes.

While Nevada has had several earthquakes of greater than 7.0 magnitude in the past 100 years, they occurred in remote areas and little damage occurred.

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.