The Afghanistan surge

Anyone who tells you he is absolutely certain about what to do in Afghanistan is a fool. Afghanistan is difficult. It has been difficult for decades, centuries even. There is no surefire way forward. Any course you take is a crapshoot.

President Obama made a strong case tonight for sending 30,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan. He laid out the history since 9/11, noting that we had the momentum in Afghanistan until we diverted our attention to Iraq. That's when the Taliban regrouped and Al Qaeda returned to its safe havens along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

We made a mistake by taking our eye off Afghanistan and now we're paying for it. Military leaders have asked Obama for more troops. He has asked questions, explored all the options and made a pragmatic decision to try once more to fix Afghanistan.

Obama is doing the right thing. As he said, "we must keep the pressure on Al Qaeda" or else "our own security is at stake."

The harsh reality is it might not work.

It might not work because Afghanistan might not be fixable. The place is a political disaster area, rotten with corruption and regional tribal chiefs who only care about their own interests. Oh, and it's home to the Taliban, who just may be the foulest bunch of neanderthals on Earth.

Then again, it might work. I'm confident that with sufficient troops and resources, the U.S. military can gouge huge chunks out of the Taliban's hide, beat it to a pulp. That will not be enough, of course. We also have to build up the skills and integrity of Afghan security forces, and we need to see the Afghan government develop into a more credible entity. Even then, the Taliban and the tribal chiefs who don't want to play along will find ways to cause trouble. Still, it's possible to set Afghanistan on a positive course.

Obama is also right that "we can't afford to ignore the price of these wars." Wars are extremely expensive, and the United States simply can't afford to be involved in endless "nation building" when its own economy is struggling. It was a political line but an effective one in Obama's speech: "The nation I am most interested in building is our own."

That said, we also can't afford to let Al Qaeda up off the mat to strike us again. Perhaps Obama's Afghanistan surge will have the desired effect of pounding the Taliban into submission and also drawing Al Qaeda out of its spider holes. The latter is the most important but it probably can't happen without the former.

I am hopeful and reluctantly supportive of the Afghanistan surge but not terribly optimistic. History suggests a no-win game.