Where are the jobs?

Jobs: the single biggest issue in America today.

Certainly other issues weigh heavily on our minds - like health care, energy independence, environmental protection, Social Security, Medicare, terrorism, America's longest war, affordable education and taxes.

But they almost all come down to, and depend on, jobs. Take health care, for instance. It's the largest single expense we, as a nation, incur - $3 trillion dollars (a staggering $1 out of every $6 we spend). And most people still equate health care with the benefits they get from their employers. Therefore, to most working Americans, health care depends on a job.

Another example is energy independence, which, theoretically, will create countless jobs. And then there's the environment; "going green" will be the largest job creation engine since the personal computer went commercial in 1981. Look at any other issue and it still comes down to jobs.

The question for everyone who is looking for a job or in one is not how to create jobs or even which candidates will do so. The question is where those jobs will be.

Getting a good handle on this question is key to good career planning and to gaining a competitive edge as a candidate. If you can grab that handle, you'll give yourself a huge advantage in getting a job; you'll have the "post position" as they say in horse racing.

Some basic statistics bear this out. Forget, for a moment, the unemployment rate (7.8 percent at time of this writing) and even the job creation rate (31 straight months of private sector job growth). For now, forget the more than
5 million jobs created since the depths of the recession. Forget the 12.1 million unemployed people (it had been nearly 16 million) and the "underemployed" number (never exact, but estimated to equal the unemployed).

Why? Because other equally big - and considerably more significant - numbers deserve our attention, the most notable being the nearly 4 million jobs that remain open at the end of any given month. That's right. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, somewhere between 3.6 million and
3.8 million jobs were unfilled at the end of a typical month over the course of this last year. That number had sunk lower during the depths of the Great Recession, but is now trending strongly upward toward 4 million.

This means that even in a job market in which everyone talks of job shortages, there are - in many job sectors - shortages of qualified candidates to fill jobs that are begging to be filled. Candidate shortages!

There are more reasons for these shortages than can be explained here, but the big one is lack of qualifications. Employers are imposing higher demands than ever, and many job seekers cannot meet them. In other words, continuing education looms large; it is more important than ever to keep going with degrees, certificates and professional development. The real question is: Are you qualified for the jobs that will be created?

Back to the point of this report, though. Let's look at what's happened in the American job market this year and, more importantly, what's projected for next year and the rest of this decade.

Growth in total nonfarm payroll employment (this is the part of the civilian labor force that is measured and reported to you once a month) averaged 146,000 per month in 2012, consistently and steadily following up an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. This is slightly higher than the number needed to keep up with population growth (generally accepted as 135,000 per month). So, assuming the rest of this year holds out, we will have seen between 3.5 million and 4 million jobs created in the last two years. Not great, but not bad either.

When we dig into the job market by sectors, however, we start to uncover opportunities. The obvious place to start is health care.

Over the past 12 months, employment in health care has risen by 295,000, continuing the most sustained growth of any industry in America and representing approximately one out of every six jobs created. Also, health care has added jobs to the American economy every month for the past 19 years. Where in health care these jobs are growing, however, has changed.

The current trend shows a continuation of growth in personal care aides, home health aides, physical and occupational therapists, certified nursing assistants, medical secretaries, dental hygienists and, of course, hospital employees.

Newer trends deserving our attention show up in ambulatory care, complementary and alternative care practitioners (chiropractic, acupuncture, massage therapy, yoga and so forth), physician assistants and nurse practitioners.

Overall, the health care and social assistance sector is projected to gain the most jobs between now and 2020, approximately 5.6 million. It's important to understand two things about this statement. One, the BLS makes its projections on a 10-year cycle and updates every two years. While we are working on the 2010-2020 decade's numbers, they are (a) the most current, and (b) still perfectly valid and reliable.

Two, by 2020 the entire baby boom generation will have moved into the 55-years-and-older age group, increasing that age group's share of the labor force from 19.5 percent in 2010 to 25.2 percent in 2020. The "prime age" working group (ages 25 to 54) is projected to drop to 63.7 percent of the 2020 labor force. The 16- to 24-year-old age group is projected to account for 11.2 percent of the labor force in 2020.

Other than demographics, what this means is a strong continuation of the trend for health care and social service workers serving our aging population, even though these "older" Americans are still working. That means more chronic care, acute care, long-term care, specialized nursing, therapy and alternative modalities.

The largest growth - 1.4 million jobs - will take place in offices of health practitioners, taking it from a current employment level of 1.9 million less than in hospitals to a level of only 300,000 less. The economics of health care simply demand more procedures and time spent out of hospitals, the most costly health care environment.

The two fastest-growing subsectors within health care (by annual percentage growth) are home health care services, at 6.5 percent, and individual and family services, at 5.5 percent. Between the two, 1.7 million new jobs will open up.

Interestingly, every employment sector has experienced job growth in the past 12 months with only one exception: government. (Side note: those people complaining about "big government" getting bigger just haven't been watching.) Although the job growth in some of the employment sectors has been small, they have all grown; even sectors like construction and financial services are more than holding their own.

Besides health care, the largest growth in terms of percentage and - in this particular category raw numbers as well - continues to be in business and professional services, which will create a projected 3.8 million jobs through 2020. This includes professional scientific, and technical services; management of companies and enterprises; and administrative support.

The largest single percentage gain of all, strikingly, comes from mining and logging.

Manufacturing, which suffered greatly during the Great Recession - but also for most of the first decade of this century - is now growing (contrary to the politically charged statements of this election year) and continues to climb. This is due largely to high-end manufacturing, technology (in areas like computer, health care, alternative energy and automobiles) and an emphasis on lean and "green" manufacturing.

The BLS projects construction, which has had more than its share of ups and downs over the last decade, to post the third-highest number of job gains (after health care and professional services) in the job market: nearly 1.9 million by 2020, an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. This is in anticipation of massive projects to upgrade the nation's infrastructure and to provide housing for a growing population.

Retail will also add 1.8 million jobs, although this represents a less dramatic percentage growth of 1.2 percent (just slightly lower than the national average).

Wholesale trade will grow by three-quarters of a million jobs, an annual average rate of 1.3 percent, the closest to the nation's growth rate of all industries combined: 1.35 percent, which works out to 14.3 percent over 10 years (compounded).

Food service and drinking places, part of the leisure and hospitality industry, will add nearly 900,000 jobs, an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. This almost exactly mirrors our population growth rate. So we could conclude that as long as our population grows (there is no slowdown projected through 2050), the food business will, too.

Among the top 20 industries with the largest projected growth in raw numbers of jobs, we also find that educational institutions play a significant role. Combined, two major categories - general local government educational services and junior colleges, colleges, universities and professional schools - will create more than 1.2 million jobs. While the second category (colleges, etc.) will create fewer jobs, the growth rate there is much higher: 2.5 percent annually, as compared to 0.9 percent.

Other growing industries also merit inclusion here. Computer systems design and related services will add more than 670,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 3.9 percent, or more than 47 percent for the decade. Architectural, engineering and related services will add 360,000 jobs, growing annually by 2.5 percent (28 percent for the decade). Truck transportation (part of the overall category of transportation and warehousing) will add 300,000 jobs, a 2.2 annual percentage gain (24 percent for the decade).

All BLS projections are built on the assumption of a full employment economy in 2020 and assume labor market equilibrium (one in which labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment). It is the opinion of this career coach that these are valid assumptions (not that the BLS is waiting for my validations, mind you).

In conclusion, the answer to the "Where are the jobs?" question is clear and easy to find. The real question, as alluded to before, is: Will you be qualified and ready?