Breaking down Tark vs. Horsford

Danny Tarkanian is about to slide off the front page.

His victory in the 4th Congressional District Republican primary was the top story from Tuesday's election because of a lack of other competitive, high-profile nominating contests. For the next 4½ months, the presidential race and Nevada's neck-and-neck, high-stakes U.S. Senate campaign between Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley will dominate the local media. Tarkanian, the front-runner in his primary, now assumes the status of underdog in his November matchup against state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas.

But does that mean the 4th District race is already decided? Far from it, the Tarkanian-Horsford matchup could very well turn into the most competitive House campaign in Nevada. Democrat Dina Titus has the 1st District sewn up. Republican Rep. Mark Amodei will coast in the 2nd District. The campaign of Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, D-Las Vegas, for the swing 3rd District has been dreadful; incumbent Republican Rep. Joe Heck has to be licking his chops.

So how might the urban-rural 4th District play out? A lot of dynamics are at play. For starters, here are four reasons why Tarkanian can win:

1. The majority of active registered voters in the 4th District are not Democrats. Yes, registered Democrats comprise 44 percent of the district's 257,000 voters, compared with the GOP's 35 percent. However, to win, Horsford will have to pick up plenty of support from the 21 percent of voters who are registered as nonpartisans or with another party. And in 2010, those voters overwhelmingly sided with Republicans in federal races. In fact, Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval carried what would have been the 4th District two years ago.

2. Horsford has given those independents no reason to vote for him. Thus far, he has stuck with lame party talking points and frequent attacks on Republicans as Tea Party extremists. Like the president, he believes tax hikes on the rich, green energy boondoggles and temporary tax incentives for businesses will create millions of jobs. Like the president, he aims to "protect" debt-growing entitlements by doing nothing to reform them. He wants more government and more spending, not less. Those aren't moderate positions.

3. Tarkanian has name recognition. Horsford's doesn't compare. Tarkanian is the son of UNLV basketball coaching legend Jerry Tarkanian and Las Vegas City Councilwoman Lois Tarkanian, and a former Runnin' Rebel star himself. But he also has two statewide campaigns under his belt: his unsuccessful runs for secretary of state and U.S. Senate. Horsford has been elected to a small, bulletproof urban Las Vegas district twice. And despite his years in the news as a legislative leader, a lot of voters have no idea who serves in Carson City. Former Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins learned that lesson when he abandoned a bid for governor back in 2006.

4. Horsford has baggage that makes him an easy target for attacks. Votes for tax increases, and proposals for higher taxes beyond those enacted. His pay-to-play fundraising fumble, in which he sought to sell face time with committee chairs, smacked of corruption. He took a trip to the Bahamas at the expense of a web poker company with important legislation pending. He has a history of not paying his personal bills in a timely fashion. And then there's the general arrogance he has displayed in running the Senate. Horsford has likability issues.

On the other hand, here are four reasons why Horsford will beat Tarkanian:

1. Tarkanian has plenty of his own baggage. A sanction from the Nevada Supreme Court for practicing law while his license was on inactive status. Questionable business practices. A telemarketing fraud investigation into his former law clients. A recent $17 million judgment against him and his family. And general questions about what exactly - beyond his name - qualifies Tarkanian to run for Congress.

2. Horsford will bury Tarkanian before the challenger can catch his breath. Sen. Harry Reid wrote this playbook in 2010 against Republican Sharron Angle. Angle emerged from a tough primary against Tarkanian and Sue Lowden with her resources exhausted. Reid pummelled her with attack ads before she could raise enough money to adequately respond. Horsford has big bucks in the bank, and Tarkanian is broke - and vulnerable.

3. Horsford will get the resources he needs, whenever he needs them, to win. If polling shows Tarkanian gaining ground at any point, Horsford will be able to respond with enough attacks, whatever they cost, to move the numbers in his favor. Meanwhile, the GOP establishment will be reluctant to heap support on Tarkanian unless he shows he has a solid chance to win.

4. Tarkanian couldn't carry Clark County in his Tuesday primary victory. He beat state Sen. Barbara Cegavske by dominating her in the district's rural counties. If name recognition is Tarkanian's greatest strength, why did more than two-thirds of Clark County's GOP voters side with Cegavske and political nobodies including Ken Wegner and Dan Schwartz?

This race should be better theater than anyone expected.

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is a Review-Journal editorial writer. Follow him on Twitter: @Glenn_CookNV.