Caucus weekend is upon us

Nevada heads into its first caucus weekend with many questions still unanswered.

Will a pending lawsuit prevent Democrats from holding precinct caucuses at nine at-large sites?

Will the judicial branch intervene, and if so, will the decision end up hurting Hillary Clinton more than Barack Obama?

Will Nevadans answer the call and get out on the Saturday morning of a three-day weekend to let their voices be heard?

Most importantly, who will win and will Nevada be the last contest for any of the candidates?

Will Obama's labor support and engagement of new voters overcome the Clinton campaign's organization and establishment allies?

Will Wednesday's backhanded "endorsement" of Obama by the Review-Journal actually drive any votes back to Clinton? (The piling on by media and other candidates has been credited for turning out women for Clinton in New Hampshire).

Will Rudy Giuliani finally get a win, and if so, is it too little, too late to fend off Mike Huckabee in Florida?

Will John McCain or Mitt Romney pick up another victory and add more confusion to the Republican nomination process? Will Ron Paul hit double-digits?

Here's how these questions should be answered.

U.S. District Judge James Mahan is scheduled to hear arguments on the lawsuit today. The teachers union is seeking a temporary restraining order to halt the at-large precincts.

My gut tells me Mahan will be swayed by the argument that the delegate selection process in at-large precincts is different. It is and it does dilute, if not wipe out completely, the power of the regular precinct sites.

But Mahan shouldn't take the extraordinary step to interfere with the Democratic Party's own screwed-up rules. This is the problem we're stuck with because Nevada has a caucus system and not a secret-ballot primary.

Besides, if Mahan grants a restraining order, this case could end up at the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, and not even Democrats want that. Assuming Mahan does intervene, the action will hurt Clinton more than it will help.

The Culinary is already pushing the line that Clinton is trying to suppress their vote. That doesn't fit in with the Las Vegas Dream or the American one, does it?

With or without the at-large sites, Obama will win Nevada because his organization will turn out the non-traditional voters, labor will fill in the gaps, and supporters of candidates who dropped out of the race will go to him.

Obama is trailing Clinton in Super Tuesday states such as California and New York. But victories in Nevada and South Carolina would give him momentum heading into Feb. 5.

Of course the Clinton campaign knows this and is treating Nevada as do-or-die heading into South Carolina.

But I'm guessing Obama will win Nevada by 5 points.

Because the Review-Journal's editorial was so backhanded and focused on Clinton, it probably won't end up hurting Obama. And because the majority of Democratic voters probably won't have read it, it won't end up helping Clinton, either.

There's enough buzz in the air and enough disgust with the Bush administration, the economy and the war that I think Democratic turnout will be historic. Obama has brought untold new voters to the system, and the party has certainly made sure every one of its registered voters knows where to go Saturday.

Turnout could actually get closer to the premature 100,000 prediction that we pundits laughed off. The weather should be sunny, even in Elko.

We won't be able to verify the Democratic Party's turnout numbers with certainty, but I think turnout could top 75,000. For the Republicans, who haven't had the luxury of candidate visits and grass-roots organizing, turnout will probably hit 30,000.

Staying with the Republicans, Mitt Romney's late visits to Nevada today and Friday will put him over the top.

Not only does he come in with "golds" in Michigan and Wyoming, he is the only Republican candidate with the type of organization that can turn out voters. Giuliani will pay in Nevada, as he has for ignoring Iowa and Michigan.

Romney will beat McCain here narrowly, probably by about 3 points. The real race on the Republican side could be for third. I think Paul will edge Huckabee, thanks to his advertising and his recent media blitz.

While many Republicans find his comments on the war and general foreign policy disturbing, Paul will pick up just enough of the "small L" libertarians to hit third in double-digits and ahead of Huckabee. It doesn't hurt that he's good with veterans and pro-life to boot.

Of course that's just how I think things will play out. You can prove me right or wrong when you caucus on Saturday.

And remember, by voicing your opinion, you'll not just be making a statement in Nevada, you'll be heard round the world.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.