Clinton’s demise was no surprise

Now that the presidential primaries are over and the race is on, this seems like a good time for a good old-fashioned "I told you so."

Sixteen months ago it may have been difficult to predict who would win the Democratic nomination. But I think we could have predicted -- and many did -- who would not win.

Two weeks ago when Sen. Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign, it was a widely foregone conclusion that her candidacy had been on life support for some time. While many of her 18 million supporters were dismayed and some were perhaps surprised by her departure, if you hearken back to the outset, the poll numbers were very telling. They gave some insights about the challenges she would face and that ultimately played out over the course of the primaries.

The vast majority of Democrats 16 months ago consistently said they would prefer someone other than Hillary as their nominee. One of the conclusions we've drawn over the past two years -- good or bad -- is that the American people have become fatigued with certain political names and legacies, and Clinton was at or near the top of that list.

(For that and other reasons, I do not believe she will be on the ticket with Sen. Barack Obama. But that's another column.)

Since 1976, every presidential election ballot has included the name Dole, Bush and/or Clinton in some combination. Bob Dole in 1976 and 1996; George H.W. Bush in 1980, 1984, 1988 and 1992; Bill Clinton in 1992 and '96; and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Clearly, change is on the menu for 2008, and Obama and his team were wise and opportunistic to tap into this public sentiment.

Timing is everything in politics. Truth be told, probably the best-prepared and most attractive candidate for the presidency this year was a man hamstrung with a last name that starts with "B" and ends with "ush." Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would have been a major force were it not for his brother's unpopularity. Think about it. Who wouldn't take seriously a two-term governor with solid credentials -- both economic and social -- who had a 65 percent approval rating when he exited office? Not to mention the fact that with 27 electoral votes, the state he governed is one of the key pieces to completing that giant electoral jigsaw puzzle, accounting for 10 percent of the total needed to be elected.

Indeed, Florida would not be on Obama's radar today had Jeb Bush been the Republican nominee or on the GOP ticket.

This "candidate fatigue" is the reason that Obama has been able to turn the page toward a new day of change. His initial strategy was targeted directly at the Clintons -- both Bill and Hillary. And upon winning the nomination, that same theme will flow seamlessly into the fall campaign. Obama has been remarkably disciplined in articulating these themes and staying on message.

John McCain will be the Republican nominee, but the theme would have been the same regardless of who it would have been. "Change" is to 2008 what "It's the economy, stupid," was to 1992. If you're not tired of that word yet, hold on. You'll be seeing it in your dreams and reading it between the lines of everything you lay your eyes on come November.

I consistently said over the past months that Clinton would have problems in the Democrat primaries. But the euphoria of establishment Democrats just couldn't imagine her not winning the nomination.

Bill Clinton observed several months ago in a moment of candor that John McCain was the only GOP candidate who had a chance to beat Hillary Clinton.

Well, anyone who would have looked at the numbers closely 18 months ago should have seen trouble on the horizon. But none of us would have thought the challenge would come from Obama. Most of the Clinton team had their sights on John Edwards. They feared him most.

Yet, while all of the focus was on a Clinton-Edwards battle, the candidate we least expected to win was organizing, raising money, and inspiring young Democrats. Today Barack Obama is the standard bearer for his party against John McCain in November.

Very few can say "I told you so" to that result.

J.C. Watts (JCWatts01@jcwatts.com) chairman of J.C. Watts Companies, a consulting group, is former chairman of the Republican Conference of the U.S. House, where he served as an Oklahoma representative from 1995 to 2002.