Fearless predictions

Finally, an even-numbered year arrives with an awesome election cycle.

Although odd-numbered years bring slam-dunk predictions about the Nevada Legislature not finishing its work in the constitutionally required 120 days, even years are rife with uncertainty.

If I were to offer my prognostications after Thursday's caucuses in Iowa, I'd have the firm ground that everyone with New Year's Eve hangovers wants. Because I'm a pundit, I'll try again to bring some predictability to the great unknown that is the primary presidential election calendar.

I'm still not among those who buy the hype of Sen. Barack Obama's stealth Nevada organization. Nor am I among those who expect the Culinary union's endorsement to affect Nevada's Jan. 19 presidential caucus.

There is no urgency and no real hope for a massive turnout operation from the Culinary's 60,000 pairs of boots on caucus day, especially because Nevada's event falls on the three-day, Martin Luther King holiday weekend. The Culinary, like everyone else, is waiting on Iowa.

With that in mind, I'll make some predictions about the Hawkeye State only because it will affect my predictions here. You'll know soon enough how well the year is starting for me.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the top Democrat in Iowa, with John Edwards and Obama neck-and-neck for second and third, a good six to 10 points behind the former first lady. I'm not sold on Obama's ability to expand the universe of caucus voters enough to upset the "in it to win it" organization of the New York senator.

On the Republican side, I'm still not convinced Mike Huckabee can pull off a caucus win, despite polls indicating he's the front-runner. I'll put Mitt Romney ahead of Huckabee by a close margin.

New Hampshire voters will get a chance to throw a wrench in the inevitability cog. I'm thinking Rudy Giuliani and John McCain will both emerge as viable GOP candidates in the Granite State. And because both have campaigned in Nevada, either could give Romney a run here, if they dare stray from vaunted South Carolina, which is holding its Republican primary the same day as Nevada's caucuses.

For Democrats, I think Clinton will win New Hampshire and make Nevada not just make-or-break for anyone below fourth (think Bill Richardson, Joe Biden) -- it'll probably be the last flicker of hope for Edwards and a must-win for Obama.

I'll be bold and predict a Culinary endorsement for Obama. But I'll be even braver by suggesting that it won't matter. Again, the union isn't completely engaged, and while it might have enjoyed the attention of all the Democratic presidential candidates, at the end of the day it makes more sense for the local to control the County Commission than the White House.

Clinton will win the Nevada Democratic caucus, with Obama second and Richardson third. (I'm banking on him picking up support from Chris Dodd and Biden voters after those candidates drop out). Turnout will never accurately be reported (this is a party-controlled event). But I'll take the under 100,000, thank you very much. In fact, I'll take 50,000 -- still a smashing success by Nevada standards.

Giuliani will win the Nevada Republican caucus, in part, because hardly anyone will participate. Those who do will be evangelicals who believe more about what Giuliani will do moving forward than any position he's had in the past. Their fear of a Mormon in the White House is also enough motivation to push Romney back into second place here. (Huckabee who?) McCain will ride some New Hampshire momentum into the Silver State for third. Turnout will be heralded as a big success at 30,000, especially given the snow in Elko County.

I don't expect the national nomination to be decided for the Republicans until mid-February, but it's quite possible Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid will serve as master of ceremonies for the Clinton coronation.

To steal a phrase from the Politico's Roger Simon, it's still easier to envision no one winning the Republican nomination than it is picking a winner. But I'm going to play the 9/11 card and go with Giuliani.

Nevada will suffer extraordinary national attention throughout the year as statewide voter registration continues to trend blue. The ads will be as dizzying as the celebrity appearances.

I can make a case for Clinton turning Nevada blue in November, but it will have to be done the same way her husband won the state twice. If Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg can put together a strong independent presidential campaign, I think Clinton will win by 2 percentage points. If not, she loses by 4, worse than either John Kerry or Al Gore.

In November's big Nevada races, Reps. Shelley Berkley and Dean Heller will both easily win re-election. Republican Jon Porter will somehow survive again, this time riding the anti-Clinton wave in his 3rd Congressional District.

The teachers union initiative to raise the gaming tax will be tossed by the state courts. The school bond will pass, and the Las Vegas Sands initiative to divert room tax revenues from the convention authority will fail. State Sen. Joe Heck will win re-election easily, Sen. Bob Beers barely.

Right or wrong, it'll be a happy new year to watch politics in Nevada.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.