Karma sneaks up on president

Hey, Las Vegas. Do you feel lucky?

For the first time, it's plausible to speculate that Nevada will be the spotlight state come election night, putting President Barack Obama over the top - or not.

Of course, it's only fun speculation. But the very idea contains a delicious turn of cosmic justice for Las Vegans, who continue to suffer through the brunt of the president's failed economic policies.

As they used to yell from the pulpit in Obama's Chicago church, the chickens are coming home to roost, baby.

Here's how this karma deal plays out.

Republican Karl Rove and Democrat Joe Trippi map Electoral College votes, based on the latest state-by-state polling. They place states in the solid Obama or solid Romney columns, the "leaning" Obama or Romney columns and the "toss-up" column.

The election now stands at Obama with a likely 184 Electoral College votes and Romney with 181. First one to 270 wins the presidency.

Most recently, Rove and Trippi moved Connecticut from "lean Obama" to "solid Obama" (7 electoral votes) and moved Nevada and Michigan from "lean Obama" to "toss-up" (6 and 16 electoral votes, respectively).

That makes 122 electoral votes up for grabs - the highest that figure has been during this campaign.

And that suddenly creates a number of combinations for a Romney victory that directly involves Nevada. Previously, President Obama's dominance in polls made a GOP path to victory seem very difficult to envision. In Vegas lingo, Romney needed to draw an inside straight.

But with Nevada and Michigan now toss-up states, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, Romney doesn't have to necessarily run the table. He can lose a few - even one of the bigger states, such as Virginia - and still get over the top.

Of course, this doesn't mean he will. Obama's not exactly Michael Dukakis in the talent department. But if the ineptness of the recently concluded Democratic National Convention is any indication, the party that couldn't even get a majority vote for God could find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The idea of the presidential election coming down to Las Vegas voters - even in a remote scenario - should send a shock through the Obama campaign. Las Vegas is ground zero for the recession. If the president gives himself a generous grade of "incomplete" for his work on the national economy, Las Vegans would give him a note that says "See Me After Class!"

Las Vegas leads the nation in unemployment, or darn close, especially among Hispanics and minorities. The construction industry was destroyed. The net wealth for all Las Vegans was cut in half (or more) by the collapsed real estate market. And, to add insult to injury, the price of gasoline and food has skyrocketed under the president's watch.

Meanwhile, the president won't take ownership of the mess. He still blames George W. Bush. But the president can't blame Bush for his own actions. Not once, but twice, President Obama took shots at the people who dare to visit Las Vegas during the recession. If you are saving for college, he said, you don't go to Vegas. And companies that do business with the federal government shouldn't be making trips to Las Vegas or the Super Bowl.

Does the president not realize that all Las Vegans, directly or indirectly, feed their children because of the industry of hosting visitors and conventions?

How ironic if karma allowed hard-hit Las Vegans to decide the future of the guy who has treated the city's economy so shabbily.

Stay tuned. And in the meanwhile: Do you feel lucky, Las Vegas?

Sherman Frederick, former publisher of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and member of the Nevada Newspaper Hall of Fame, writes a column for Stephens Media. Read his blog at www.lvrj.com/blogs/sherm.