Latino power

Nevada's booming Hispanic population was one of the key reasons state Democrats made a pitch for an early presidential caucus.

But questions about whether Hispanic voters could turn out in decent numbers, or sway the caucus, dogged Democratic organizers all year.

Exit polling suggests large numbers of Hispanics came out for Saturday's caucus, and with Sen. Hillary Clinton receiving two-thirds of the votes Latinos made, it's clear they did play a role swaying the result.

But even Hispanics who have been hyping the growing role of a demographic that makes up more than a quarter of the valley's population aren't so sure the caucus was the deciding show of force that will forever make Latinos a viable voting bloc.

Luis Valera served as vice chairman of Impacto, a nonpartisan political action committee affiliated with the Latin Chamber of Commerce. He said the caucus turned more on Clinton's "relentlessness" than on any overarching appeal by the Democratic Party.

"The imagery of seeing an international figure, the former first lady, walking the streets of East Las Vegas in a Hispanic neighborhood is very powerful," Valera said.

Yet Valera, a registered independent, said it's still possible for Sen. Barack Obama to "retool" his message to Hispanic voters in the Feb. 5 states. And it's possible that even though the caucus stirred many new voters to participate, many Hispanics could break for the Republican nominee, particularly if it's border-state Sen. John McCain, whose immigration proposal was highly praised by Latinos.

Tony Sanchez, who chaired Impacto and is active in Democratic Party politics, said the sheer process of putting on an early caucus is what energized so many Latinos to participate. He and Democratic Party outreach director Andres Ramirez both say they think the estimate that 15 percent of caucus-goers were Hispanic is actually low, putting the number closer to 20 percent.

Sanchez said Clinton was a natural candidate to woo Latinos, thanks to her husband's record as president. Naturalization rates soared and Latinos remember a much different immigration climate, Sanchez said. He also said future Hispanic turnout is an open-ended question, the caucus results simply showing the Clintons' "rock-star quality" among many Hispanic voters.

Ramirez notes that estimates on Hispanic turnout have been ticking upward. Hispanics made up roughly 10 percent of turnout for the 2004 presidential vote and about 13 percent of turnout in the 2006 cycle.

"I would certainly say this is the beginning of that movement we've been predicting," Ramirez said.

While those turnout numbers will continue to be significant, Ramirez cautions they may not fall "uniformly behind one of the candidates."

This caucus saw unprecedented outreach by the Democrats, including Spanish-language training, voter hot lines and canvassing. Work by Spanish-language media (both Clinton and Obama stumped for votes the morning of the caucus on Univision), and having Clinton on the ballot also helped the caucus generate big Hispanic turnout

"One thing we know is that Hispanics are very brand-loyal, and Clinton is a liked brand," Ramirez said, referring to Bill Clinton's administration appointments and policies. Still, Ramirez said the Democratic nominee will have to "aggressively court" the Hispanic community.

In 2004, it was the Bush-Cheney campaign that made significant inroads with Hispanic voters, focusing on family and small-business values. Immigration could get in the way of that message this year.

Democrats certainly see this election year as an opportunity to woo Hispanic voters, even though Latinos are less likely to be Democrats than black voters. UNLV political science professor Ken Fernandez said that by the second or third generation, Hispanics are more likely to be Republicans.

So for now, at least, Democratic candidates should be able to vie for Hispanic voters. Whether they remain energized throughout the year will largely depend on whether Clinton is the party's nominee for president. The large number of Hispanics elected as delegates to the county conventions next month will help keep that energy high, but if McCain makes it to the general election, he could peel away some of those voters.

Many Cuban-Americans are registered Republican, and many Latinos vote for pro-life candidates.

Saturday's caucus should be seen as a cautionary tale for Democrats. Sure, Hispanics are voting in record numbers, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're going to vote Democratic.

Sanchez is hopeful Democrats can win Hispanics over this election, arguing he doesn't think most Republican candidates are "capable of going into the Hispanic community based on their immigration stances."

McCain is that wild card. The issue that makes him vulnerable as a Republican gives him strength among Hispanics.

Saturday was a hopeful start. Come November, Hispanics just might swing an election.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.