As soon as Colts bench Manning, all bets are off

Fans of NFL teams get nauseous when they hear this line: "There's always next year." It applies to the majority of the teams with two weeks remaining in the regular season.

Teams already plotting a course to April's draft are, in alphabetical order: Arizona. Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, Miami, New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Francisco and St. Louis.

Those teams' shortcomings throughout the season give them the opportunity to look to the future immediately, which means we will see plenty of new faces on the field.

Also, teams like New England and Indianapolis are locked into their AFC playoff positions. We know the Patriots are chasing history and would seem set on rolling on with their starters, but the Colts are a different story.

When backup quarterback Jim Sorgi hits the field, the Colts hit the skids. The challenge for oddsmakers and handicappers is to forecast which scrubs will suit up and for how long. That's an annual rite of passage in Week 17, but now it becomes a two-week Rubik's cube with so many teams sent packing.

Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay maintains it is business as usual.

"We're keeping a close eye on the ticker to monitor any possible lineup changes," Kornegay said. "Basically, we'll treat these matchups like preseason games. All of these potential factors already have been installed in the line. We've certainly been down this road before."

Colts coach Tony Dungy said he plans on being more conservative with his key players next week, but not necessarily in today's game against the Houston Texans, who are 7-point road underdogs.

Peyton Manning cites the need to stay sharp and develop increased familiarity with newer players, such as wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez. OK, that sounds good, but my hunch is Manning will be getting more familiar with a view from the sidelines in the second half. Buyer beware!

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba confirms that numbers posted this week reflect the gray areas of players resting and motivational factors.

"If the game meant something to either the Colts or the Texans, Indianapolis would be in the neighborhood of a 13-point favorite," Seba said. "Tampa Bay's and Seattle's games have been shaded down around 3 points, with the difference of being the No. 3 seed in the NFC not as critical as it would be in the AFC."

Translation: the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers are regarded as relatively equal looking ahead to a second-round playoff game. On the other hand, the San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers crave the No. 3 seed in the AFC to stay away from New England until the AFC Championship Game.

With the prospects of playing the unbeaten Patriots in the last week of the season and needing a victory to get a playoff invitation, the New York Giants have to be approaching their visit to Buffalo today as a must-win situation.

Before being eliminated from the playoffs, the Bills were listed as 1-point favorites at the Hilton. The consensus opening number around town this week had the Giants minus-3, but support has surfaced for the Bills with the number dipping to 21/2.

Buffalo has 15 players on injured reserve and has shown no quit. For further motivation, tight end Kevin Everett's remarkable recovery from a spinal injury takes another step, as he is expected to join the Bills on the sideline today.

The Giants have a six-game road winning streak, but if they get careless at Buffalo, Giants fans could develop that queasy feeling, with the words "wait until next year" resting on the tip of their tongues.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on KENO-AM (1460).