If James gets help, Heat can soar

NBA commissioner David Stern and ABC have to be happy with the NBA Finals matchup that pits LeBron James and the Miami Heat against the San Antonio Spurs. The only matchup that might have been more appealing would have been a healthy Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers against the Heat.

A lot of people are in love with the Spurs after their sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals. Couple that with Miami’s inconsistent play against the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls, and a sentiment is growing that San Antonio will beat the Heat, as evidenced by the lowering of the price (minus-220) for Miami to win the series.

Both teams exceeded the season wins that oddsmakers predicted for them. The Heat finished with 66 regular-season wins, 4½ more than expectations, while the Spurs chalked up 58 victories to go over their predicted total by three. The Heat played in the weakest division, the Southeast, which won 180 games among the five teams. The Southwest Division, the Spurs’ home, had more combined wins (227) by its five teams than any other division.

Miami regressed this season in defensive efficiency. Last year, the Heat gave up 97.1 points per 100 possessions, fourth-best in the league. This season shows a No. 7 ranking for the Heat at 100.5.

But Miami took a leap on offense, moving from sixth in 2011-12 at 104.5 points per 100 possessions to first this year at 110.3. The Heat shot a league-best 55.2 percent from the field this season.

The Spurs improved this season by 1.4 points in their defensive efficiency but fell from first to seventh in offensive efficiency. San Antonio is playing at a faster pace this year and has seen improvement from starters Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter.

Miami warded off the physical Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat beat down Indiana in Game 7 by causing a plethora of turnovers, pounding the boards and attacking the rim to cause some Pacers to get in foul trouble.

San Antonio swept the Grizzlies by playing suffocating defense. Splitter continued his seasonlong mastery of defending Zach Randolph, and the Memphis perimeter game didn’t make up for the difference.

Unfortunately, we can derive little meaningful data from the two times the Heat and Spurs met this year, both won by Miami. Each game had key participants missing.

Chris Bosh’s past four playoff games have been terrible, except for his rebounding improvement in Game 7 against the Pacers. He has scored from five to nine points in the past four games.

With Miami playing small ball with Bosh at center, the Spurs might have issues on defense. Splitter isn’t quick enough to guard him on the perimeter, and Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wants to keep power forward Tim Duncan in the paint.

Leonard will probably be guarding James, but San Antonio relies more on team defense than any one individual. James probably will guard San Antonio point guard Tony Parker if needed late in the game. I don’t think he will be on Parker much before the fourth quarter, because Parker’s movement would wear him down.

Parker could pose a big problem for Miami, which has struggled against teams with quality point guards. He is playing at an elite level, averaging 23.0 points while shooting 47 percent and handing out 7.2 assists in the playoffs.

The Spurs’ favorite offensive play is the pick-and-roll, which accounts for 23.3 percent of their plays, one of the highest percentages in the league. This will be strength against strength, as Miami is the best team in the league defending the pick-and-roll.

The Spurs have a much better bench than the Heat, getting 37 percent of their scoring from there, with Miami’s subs scoring 28.6 percent of the team’s points. Shane Battier has vanished for Miami, but Chris “Birdman” Andersen has been playing great, and Ray Allen is giving Miami a 3-point threat.

I think the 2-3-2 format favors Miami, as it is difficult to beat a quality team three times in a row. This helps explain why teams are 45-18 in Finals history when they have home-court advantage.

San Antonio is a solid team that poses matchup problems for Miami. The Heat need a player other than James to step up to win the series. Guard Dwyane Wade has been shaky in the playoffs, as has Bosh. I wonder about Miami’s team chemistry, but that never has been a problem for the Spurs.

I am not going to place a wager on them to win the series, but I prefer the Heat. Historically, home teams over the past 10 years in Game 1 in the Finals have been dominant, winning nine of 10 and covering the point spread at the same rate. Miami is the only side for me in Game 1.

Jim Kruger is a handicapper for VegasSportsAuthority.com. Follow him on Twitter: @KrugerinVegas.