Blink a few times, then back the Pats

It seems to be an optical illusion. The sight of Peyton Manning and the undefeated, defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts as home underdogs -- and getting more than a field goal -- plays tricks on the eyes and messes with the mind.

It appears to be a great betting opportunity, especially in a league in which wagering on home 'dogs is a good way to get ahead of the game.

It also seems too good to be true.

Betting on the Colts this week would mean betting against quite possibly the greatest team in NFL history -- and that's not hyperbole.

The New England Patriots, 8-0 straight up and against the spread and winners of every game by at least 17 points, are 51/2-point favorites over Indianapolis on Sunday.

As much as I would like to take the Colts, there are six reasons why I'm laying the points and expecting the Patriots to cover 51/2:

• No quarterback has ever played better than Tom Brady is now. He has passed for 30 touchdowns and has been intercepted only twice.

• Brady's three wide receivers -- Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker -- are too big and fast for any defense to contain, even one with Colts strong safety Bob Sanders flying all over the field.

• New England's aggressive defense, which ranks third in the league, is vastly improved. Manning beat the Patriots twice last season, but the defense he will see Sunday is tougher up front and stronger in the secondary.

• Manning's favorite target, wide receiver Marvin Harrison, is slowed by a bruised left knee. He expects to play, but he is not at full speed.

• Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a chip on his shoulder and he's taking no prisoners. And he's also a sharper strategist than his counterpart, Tony Dungy.

• After blowing a 21-6 halftime lead in the AFC Championship Game, New England is going back to Indianapolis for revenge. Belichick and Brady must be angry at how they got content with a lead and gave away the game.

A strong case can be made for both sides, especially a home 'dog of the Colts' quality, but I see the Patriots being 10 points better.

Four more plays for Week 9 (home team in CAPS):

• Jaguars (+31/2) over SAINTS: Drew Brees is making a comeback, passing for eight touchdowns with one interception during New Orleans' three-game winning streak. But the Saints have covered only three of their past 14 games as favorites. Jacksonville has the stronger defense and running attack.

• Broncos (+3) over LIONS: Denver coach Mike Shanahan is 7-2-1 as an underdog against the NFC, and Shanahan needs to get out of the doghouse after poor play-calling and time mismanagement crippled his team in Monday's loss to Green Bay. The Broncos have elite cornerbacks capable of covering Detroit's talented wide receivers.

• Chargers (-7) over VIKINGS: Minnesota has two terrible quarterbacks, Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger, and rookie running back Adrian Peterson can't do it by himself against a San Diego defense geared to stop him. The Chargers are finally rolling, winning three in a row by a total of 77 points. Philip Rivers can pick apart Minnesota's weak pass defense, and LaDainian Tomlinson should put together a highlight reel.

• Cowboys (-3) over EAGLES: Inconsistency has plagued Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia offense, which has produced more than 16 points in just two games. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has more weapons to work with, and the Cowboys' fast defense will pressure McNabb, who no longer is a running threat.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 19-17-4

Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans can be reached at 387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.