Chiefs merit look as home ‘dog

Nothing about the San Diego Chargers' season has gone according to expectations. Behind the running of LaDainian Tomlinson and a tough defense, the Chargers were thought to be one of the NFL's elite teams. Instead, they have been an enigma.

One of the season's biggest surprises came Sept. 30, when San Diego was humiliated at home by the Kansas City Chiefs, 30-16. A third consecutive loss dropped the Chargers to 1-3.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs had won four of five going into their bye week in late October.

Now, Kansas City is mired in a four-game losing streak and San Diego has won five of its past seven -- and it's the Chargers who appear ready to make a run.

But just as topsy-turvy as the season has been in just about every division, Las Vegas handicapper Jim Spatafore (jimmyspats.com) said he's not ready to concede the AFC West to San Diego just yet, as nothing is as it seems in arguably the league's second-worst division.

"The contrarian in me leads me to believe everyone will have the Chargers in search of revenge and taking advantage of the struggling Chiefs," said Spatafore, who likes Kansas City as a 6-point home underdog today against San Diego. "But you have to look a lot closer at how the Chiefs are losing, and why they were able to shut down San Diego the first time around."

Spatafore pointed out that only Green Bay has scored at least 30 points against Kansas City, while nine of the Chiefs' 11 opponents have failed to score more than 20.

Despite their 4-7 record, the Chiefs rank 10th in the NFL in defense, allowing 311.6 yards per game, while their scoring defense ranks eighth in allowing 18.7 points per game.

Spatafore said Kansas City quarterback Damon Huard, who passed for 284 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting, should have another productive game against a vulnerable Chargers defense.

San Diego is 1-6 against the spread in its past seven road games.

Spatafore, a former winner of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, offers his analysis on the rest of the Week 13 schedule:

• Atlanta at St. Louis (-31/2): The Falcons have struggled on artificial turf, on which they've dropped six in a row against the spread. The favorite is 5-0 against the spread the last five meetings. I know Rams quarterback Marc Bulger has been ruled out of this one, but there's still the chore of stopping Steven Jackson, whose downhill running can tire a defense quickly. I like the favorite.

• Buffalo at Washington (-6): All due respect to the Sean Taylor tragedy surrounding the Redskins last week, but I never have been a big believer in these situations playing a role. On the contrary, I think it has been a distraction. With Washington sporting an ugly 1-8-1 mark against the spread against losing teams, and Buffalo carrying a 9-4 ATS run in December into this season, I'll play the road underdog.

• Detroit at Minnesota (-4): This is a series owned by the Vikings, who are 5-0 against the spread in the past five meetings. Tarvaris Jackson isn't the same quarterback the Lions faced in the second game of the season, when he threw four interceptions and Detroit still had to go overtime to win. Jackson, 4-2 in his six starts this year, has thrown only two other interceptions all season. If the line is 31/2, my advice is to buy the hook off this line and lay a field goal.

• Houston at Tennessee (-31/2): After losing three in a row, the Titans are in a must-win situation, and they beat the Texans once this season in a 38-36 shootout. Houston is on a 1-4 against-the-spread skid on the road, and is 1-5 ATS in its past six against conference foes, so this could be the perfect game for Titans quarterback Vince Young to break out of his funk.

• Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7): While everyone should be looking at Indianapolis, which finally has had time to recuperate after playing its four November games in 19 days, it's back to a physical test after a fairly easy win at Atlanta on Thanksgiving. I know the Colts won by 22 at Jacksonville, but since then the Jags are 4-1 and have won three straight, beating the Titans, Chargers and Bills by an average of 14.6 points. Jacksonville is on ATS runs of 6-1 against AFC foes, 5-1 against teams with winning records and 4-1 overall. Take the points.

• New York Jets at Miami (-11/2): I can't see the Dolphins winning this game with their putrid offense. Near the bottom of nearly every major offensive category, Miami will continue to struggle. New York is on a 20-4 ATS run in this AFC East rivalry, while a 9-26 ATS skid at home hinders the Dolphins.

• Seattle at Philadelphia (-3): The Seahawks' inconsistent ways have seemed to disappear, and I like them to run their winning streak to four. Mike Holmgren's team is 4-0 against the spread in the past four against NFC opponents. The Eagles are 0-8 when laying a field goal or less. The road team is 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings, so grab the points.

• San Francisco at Carolina (-3): This is not one of my favorite games, but I'll side with the Panthers to stop their home futility and cover over San Francisco, which is 1-6 against the spread in its past seven against the NFC. The 49ers arguably have the NFL's worst offense.

• Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-31/2): Tampa Bay is the third-best team in the NFC right now, and that's with a less-than-impressive offense. The Bucs haven't allowed more than 13 points in their past three games, and although those games were against the Cardinals, Falcons and Redskins -- three teams that don't compare to New Orleans -- I remind you that Tampa held the Saints to 14 points in the first meeting. I'll take the value with the underdog.

• Cleveland at Arizona (-1): We're banking on a lot of points as the Browns should force the Cardinals into an explosive game. Arizona's past three games have averaged 60.6 points, and Cleveland's four games in November averaged 57.2. The Cardinals have gone over the total in four of their past five and in five of their past seven at home, and the Browns are 10-1 over in their past 11 games. This one soars over the total (511/2).

• Denver (-31/2) at Oakland: The Raiders can't stop the run. In the past three weeks, the Broncos have rushed for a league-best 445 yards behind backup running backs Selvin Young and Andre Hall. Ball control and time management gets it done for Denver against Oakland's league-worst run defense.

• New York Giants (-2) at Chicago: I've completely given up on Giants quarterback Eli Manning and now consider him the Jeff Weaver of the NFL. Bet against him and the odds are stacked in your favor for a win. Of course, I know it makes it no better that I am siding with the Bears' Rex Grossman, but at least he has a chance to throw against a weak secondary. I'll take the home 'dog and expect Manning to follow his four-interception performance with another futile showing.

• Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7): A win over the rival Steelers and the Bengals get to climb out of the cellar. With one of the league's most prolific aerial attacks -- thanks to Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- I'll look for a rather explosive game to erase the memory of Monday's rain-soaked snoozer at Heinz Field.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.