Dolphins favored to end run at dubious history

It's time to pull out an old adage: when opportunity knocks.

The Miami Dolphins find themselves in position today to take advantage of that long-standing idiom. Racing toward the ignominious historic achievement of going winless for an entire NFL season, the Dolphins had better seize their best opportunity remaining to post a victory.

The Dolphins host the Jets today, and here's the kicker -- Miami is a 11/2-point favorite.

Miami must hope last week's results are a trend that lasts at least one more week. Home teams won nine of 16 games, with favorites covering 10 of those games. The Dolphins have been more than competitive, losing a frustrating five games by three points each.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Sean Van Patten cuts to the chase on today's game: "To me, position by position, the Jets are simply the better team. It was only two weeks ago they knocked off Pittsburgh. In addition, the Dolphins are likely down to their fourth-string running back."

LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba is sympathetic to the Dolphins' plight, saying: "They are playing extremely hard each and every week. I've basically lowered their ratings based solely on the laundry list of injuries they've incurred."

To go unbeaten or winless, a team needs either good or bad luck along the journey. Today's dose of bad karma for Miami is the fact the Jets, who played on Thanksgiving Day, will have had several extra days to prepare for the game. You might need sunglasses in your living room to watch this game. Rest assured, a sea of bright orange will be in the stands, representing empty seats.

Let's move from the bottom of the barrel to one of the most important games today. Jacksonville visits Indianapolis with first place in the AFC South on the line. On Oct. 22, the Colts throttled the Jaguars, 29-7. That was the game that sent Jaguars quarterback David Garrard to the sidelines for a few weeks. He's back and playing well. The Colts had better take this group seriously.

There seems to be great value getting 61/2 or 7 points with Jacksonville, which is improving as injuries have beset the Colts.

"I've downgraded the Colts by two full points due to the loss of (defensive end) Dwight Freeney and (wide receiver) Marvin Harrison's fragile nature," Seba said.

The Colts also have the benefit of a few extra days of rest and preparation off their Thanksgiving victory at Atlanta.

In the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, the Jaguars are getting plenty of love from the participants, who have made Jacksonville the top consensus selection for this week.

Another big game to monitor is in the NFC South, with the New Orleans Saints trying to close the gap when they host the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Saints are 31/2-point favorites. The prevailing opinion is the Bucs could be in trouble with Jeff Garcia's status uncertain because of a back injury. Not so fast. Backup quarterback Bruce Gradkowski accomplished next to nothing last week following Garcia's ouster. But with a full week of increased reps in practice for Gradkowski, and with Tampa Bay's salty defense, the Saints are no gimme to cover that number. In Week 2, the Bucs clobbered New Orleans, 31-14.

Let's wrap things up with the weekly chronicle on New England's quest for history and the outlandish numbers that have surfaced. For starters, the Baltimore Ravens will be the biggest home underdogs in history Monday night, currently getting a 201/2-point head start.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on KENO-AM (1460).