Expert backing Aggies

It's all speculation now, but Kansas State junior Josh Freeman has a shot to be the first quarterback selected in April's NFL Draft.

Freeman is not even the top quarterback in the Big 12 Conference this season, however. Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Texas' Colt McCoy, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Texas Tech's Graham Harrell head the class, and all play for highly ranked teams.

Kansas State, 3-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread, appears to be a mediocre team with a star player.

"The Wildcats have played a cupcake schedule. Four of their five games were at home versus powerhouses North Texas, Montana State and Louisiana-Lafayette," handicapper Bryan Leonard said. "They played a good team last week at home, and Texas Tech slaughtered them by 30 points."

Freeman and the Wildcats hit the road Saturday as 31/2-point favorites over Texas A&M, and Leonard (footballwinners.com) said he likes the underdog Aggies.

Kansas State's defense allowed 626 yards in a 58-28 loss to Texas Tech and yielded 577 yards in a 38-29 loss at Louisville.

Leonard pointed out the Wildcats are poor road favorites, winning just one of their past eight straight up while failing to cover all eight times in that role.

"The Aggies have not been world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but they are improving," Leonard said.

Mike Sherman, a former coach of the Green Bay Packers, has the Aggies at 2-3 in his first season.

"Sherman changed schemes when he took over, and the team is just starting to grasp the new pro-style West Coast offense," Leonard said. "We get a team on the rise as a home underdog against an overrated team that can't win on the road."

Leonard analyzes two more plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

• INDIANA (+6) over Iowa: The Hawkeyes continue to find ways to lose. They dropped another close game last week, falling 16-13 at Michigan State. Iowa is 0-7 against the spread as a road favorite, and 3-5 straight up against Indiana with Kirk Ferentz as coach. Ferentz is on the hot seat, and for good reason, as he has one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the country.

The Iowa defense has not faced a quarterback like Kellen Lewis, a multi-threat player who is sure to cause problems. The Hoosiers have not looked good this season, but they match up well against the Iowa defense.

• BAYLOR (-41/2) over Iowa State: The Cyclones are off a terrible loss to Kansas in a game they led 20-0 at halftime. Bouncing back will be tough. Keep in mind that Iowa State lost at UNLV -- a team that has won just 11 games the past 41/2 seasons -- and has not won a road game since 2005.

Baylor is making great steps under first-year coach Art Briles, who will look to improve on the Bears' 13-1 straight-up and 10-3 ATS marks when installed as favorites.