Falcons likely in trouble

Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan made his NFL debut look too easy by leading the Atlanta Falcons to a blowout victory.

Ryan got a lot of help from running back Michael Turner, who probably deserves most of the credit for the Falcons' 2-1 start. Turner tops the league in rushing with 366 yards and five touchdowns.

Atlanta has recorded double-digit home victories over Detroit and Kansas City. In Week 2, however, the Falcons were grounded in a 24-9 defeat at Tampa Bay.

The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said a trend might be developing for the Falcons, who are 7-point underdogs at Carolina today. Look for Ryan to struggle on the road, he said, and for the Panthers to cover the number.

"It's the same scenario as Week 2 for the Falcons, off a home win over a flawed opponent and now facing an angry division foe off a defeat," Marshall said. "Ryan has had to throw only 31 passes in the two Atlanta wins, but he won't likely have the luxury of Turner running for big yards."

Star wide receiver Steve Smith returned for Carolina (2-1) in its loss at Minnesota last week. Marshall said Smith's presence will be a "big plus" for the Panthers.

The teams are 11-4-1 under the total in their past 15 meetings. Since 2006, the Falcons are 13-4 under the total on the road and the Panthers are 11-5-1 under at home.

Marshall (goldsheet.com) outlines more key trends in today's games:

• Denver at Kansas City: The Broncos dominated last year, winning and covering both games. But Denver had failed to win the previous four or cover the previous three at Arrowhead Stadium. The teams went 10-3 over the total in the past 13 meetings. The Chiefs are 1-7-1 against the spread in their past nine at home. Edge: Broncos and over.

• Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Bucs coach Jon Gruden is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite since last year, but the Packers are 10-2-1 ATS in their past 13 away since late 2006. Green Bay is 8-1 over the total on the road since last year. Edge: Over.

• San Diego at Oakland: It's all Chargers lately in this spirited rivalry; they have won the past nine straight up and stand 9-1 ATS in the past 10. San Diego is 14-5 over the total on the road since 2006. The Raiders are 11-29-1 ATS at home since 2003. Edge: Chargers and over.

• Philadelphia at Chicago: The Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 as a visitor and 11-6 over the total in the past 17 on the road. The Bears are 15-4 over the total in their past 19 at home. Edge: Eagles and over.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.