Here goes nothing: Browns in an upset

With the possible exception of Week 17, when playoff-bound teams are sitting starters and also-rans are playing out the string, Week 1 is the hardest week of the NFL season to handicap.

We'll know a lot more about the makeup of this year's teams and if they're gellin' after Monday night. Analyzing today's slate is difficult using statistics since these teams haven't played for real in seven to eight months, and a lot of stock can't be put in the preseason, but that doesn't mean handicappers are going into these games blind.

We can analyze based on the players who have been added and the ones who have left.

The lines for Week 1 have been up on these games since April. That is more than enough time to break down these teams while going through their schedules in analyzing over/under season win totals and to narrow down the most likely winners in the opening week.

Or at least that's the goal with my five plays, using lines as of Saturday night (home team in CAPS):

• BROWNS (+5) over Steelers: It's opening day in Cleveland, and with the hated Steelers in town, the Dawg Pound wouldn't be more rabid if PETA was throwing a roast for Michael Vick.

Charlie Frye, the Browns' former quarterback of the future, should be inspired to perform well to hold off the new kid, Brady Quinn. He has the weapons to do it against a defense that lost Joey Porter.

I'm less sold on the Steelers' offense. The team seems to back coach Mike Tomlin, but the offense didn't add anyone of note and could take time executing the new system. Home crowd. Overrated road favorite. Smells like an upset.

• Titans (+7) over JAGUARS: A lot of people are expecting Tennessee QB Vince Young to succumb to the sophomore jinx (or the Madden jinx), but he is a winner, and he was money for bettors last year as the Titans went a league-best 11-5 against the spread -- including five straight upsets and six straight covers that ended in the season finale. They also were 7-1-3 with the over in Young's starts.

The Jaguars ended the season on the skids, and the quarterback controversy that led to Byron Leftwich's release split the team. The Titans look like another live dog, especially given coach Jeff Fisher's advance time to prepare.

• RAMS (-1) over Panthers: With QB Marc Bulger and Las Vegas native Steven Jackson at running back, the Rams are primed to return to being the greatest show on turf. The Rams at over 7 1/2 wins was my top over/under season win total prediction, so I have to back them against Carolina, which has lost its past three openers.

• Bears (+6) over CHARGERS: The Bears might suffer from the Super Bowl loser hangover, which usually leads to doom the following season, but this line seems too high with the Bears having one of the NFL's top defenses (as do the Chargers) and an offense that, despite the occasional Rex Grossman version of Football Follies, can score with anyone. I see this game as a toss-up, so take the points.

• Lions (+2 1/2) over RAIDERS: Here's the exception to the "ignore preseason" rule. The Lions were No. 2 in passing and No. 4 in offense in the preseason, and while you could say a lot of that was against backup players, it also was with J.T. O'Sullivan at quarterback. That should give the Lions' offense confidence with veteran Jon Kitna under center. The Raiders are the Raiders until further notice.

Last season: 47-36-2 against the spread.

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.