Hold your nose, bet the Colts

It's too early to count out the Indianapolis Colts, too soon to say Peyton Manning is no longer better than his little brother and not yet time to push coach Tony Dungy into retirement.

But some of that panic could start hitting next week if the Colts lose to the Houston Texans on Sunday.

Indianapolis, probably fortunate to be 1-2, should emerge from its bye week with a sense of urgency. In the NFL, as in a presidential campaign, nothing is really won in the first month. The Colts, however, are quickly losing support in the polls.

Manning, never a candidate for "Dancing With the Stars" and more immobile than normal after left knee surgery in July, has played mostly like a mediocre quarterback. His timing is missing, the offense is out of rhythm and wideout Marvin Harrison is obviously a step slower.

The Colts' first month was a disaster. The bye came at the perfect time, allowing Dungy to regroup a team in disarray.

Indianapolis has several problems that cannot be fixed in a week, but the Colts still appear to be worth a bet as 3-point favorites over the winless Texans in their delayed home opener.

Manning has manhandled Houston, winning 11 of 12 games and passing for 29 touchdowns with four interceptions. Harrison is not the same big-play threat, but Manning also has Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez as targets, and center Jeff Saturday returns from a right knee injury. The offense has the talent to improve in a hurry.

Dungy's defense is a bigger dilemma, and hopefully he has a bailout plan. Indy is allowing 199 rushing yards per game, ranking 31st in the league, and to make matters worse, safety Bob Sanders is out.

The Texans will put up a good fight and eat up yards with quarterback Matt Schaub, wideout Andre Johnson and running back Steve Slaton taking advantage of Sanders' absence in the secondary.

But this is a spot for the Colts to bounce back and be counted as AFC contenders again, so expect Manning to put on his dancing shoes and win a shootout.

Four more plays for Week 5 (Home team in CAPS):

• DOLPHINS (+61/2) over Chargers: LaDainian Tomlinson's long touchdown run with about a minute to go last week helped San Diego pull out a miraculous cover at Oakland. The Chargers are on the road again, and the test will be tougher. Miami's excellent coaching staff had an extra week to game plan, and the Dolphins are confident after a blowout victory at New England.

• LIONS (+31/2) over Bears: As long as quarterback Jon Kitna avoids an implosion, Detroit should be in position to win. The Lions are off a bye, and Chicago is 2-2 after a tough four-game stretch. Detroit swept the series last year.

• BRONCOS (-3) over Buccaneers: The development of quarterback Jay Cutler and wideout Brandon Marshall has the Denver offense rolling, especially at home. The Broncos' defense is an obvious concern, but Tampa Bay's Brian Griese is too inconsistent to trust. He threw three interceptions last week against Green Bay.

• Patriots (-3) over 49ERS: After a bad loss and a bye week, look for a strong effort by New England's defense. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has won and covered nine in a row on the road after a loss. Those numbers mean less because Tom Brady is out, but New England is a more talented team out for redemption.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 12-7-1

Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans can be reached at 387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.