Major line movements often due to overreaction

It's becoming a typical NFL season in Las Vegas, where long-term memory sometimes is overwhelmed by what was witnessed most recently.

When lines steam based on a team's good or poor result the previous week, it's a common occurrence. After the fact, bettors are sometimes left shaking their heads, bemoaning the fact they overreacted to a recent development.

Several games today have featured major line moves. Are the strong opinions well-founded or misguided? Let's try to figure it out.

New Orleans opened as a 31/2-point favorite for its visit to Buffalo, and the number has ballooned in support of the Saints, who are now minus-61/2 at some sports books.

There's no denying quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have been impressive in their first two wins. New Orleans blew out Detroit and walked into Philadelphia and lit up a depleted Eagles team. It was pretty to watch, but are they being given too much credit?

"The Saints are certainly the buzz team at the moment," Las Vegas Sports Consultants odds director Tony Sinisi said. "They're an offense that's clicking on all cylinders, with a quarterback at the top of his game. More often than not, teams will have to outscore them, because you're not going to stop them."

Added LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba: "Its fast-break football with a great head coach running the show."

Does that necessarily mean the Saints are the play today?

Buffalo gave the opener away at New England and followed that up with a solid home victory over Tampa Bay. The Bills couldn't gain a yard in the preseason, but the late change to Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator has actually reaped immediate rewards for the no-huddle offense that is stretching the field with long passes.

Don't be surprised if Buffalo hangs in with a shot to win.

Can so many people really be jumping off the Patriots' bandwagon after only two weeks?

There has been a line move against New England, which is about a 41/2-point home favorite over Atlanta. The line opened as high as 61/2. The Falcons (2-0) clearly are a different team at home and this is their first road game. It stands to reason that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will settle back into his rhythm after missing last year.

MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood said he could understand a slight downgrade of New England, but a drastic downgrade so early in the season is a bit puzzling.

"The Patriots are not collecting Social Security checks just yet, and Bill Belichick didn't become a stupid coach overnight," Rood said. "The loss of Wes Welker hurt them last week against the Jets. He is Brady's security blanket."

Another line that's intriguing has the Chicago Bears as 21/2-point favorites at Seattle.

How quickly we forget. So quarterback Matt Hasselbeck got hurt, and San Francisco's Frank Gore ripped off monster runs against the Seahawks' defense last week. Seneca Wallace came in for Hasselbeck and didn't save the day. How many times have we seen backups jump into the fray and look horrible, but given a full week's worth of reps with the first team, they become completely different quarterbacks the following week?

This is not to claim that Wallace will slice the Bears apart, but he will play better, and that might be good enough to get the job done today. LVSC's Ken White said Wallace has an opportunity to be the difference.

"Last year, in three starts at home against the Eagles, Patriots and Jets, Wallace protected the ball well, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions," White said. "They went 1-2 in those games. He's a much better quarterback at home, and (coach) Jim Mora will be developing a game plan that best suits his abilities."

Among the 0-2 teams facing virtual must-win situations early in the season are Tennessee and Miami, both AFC playoff participants from last season. Both teams face difficult road tests.

Money has surfaced on both winless teams during the week. The Titans are 21/2-point underdogs against the New York Jets, and the Dolphins are 6-point underdogs at San Diego.

"The plight of these teams has been taken into account," Seba said. "The numbers don't lie. Regardless of how good they may actually be, teams that start 0-3 face a daunting task the remainder of the season to battle back and make the playoffs."

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on "Sportsbook Radio," weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.