Midround picks could hold key to success for a change

Week 3 of the fantasy football season was a fluke, an aberration, an exception to the rule.

Kevin Curtis never again will break the 200-yard mark or catch three touchdown passes in a game. Mark that down.

But realize, for the first time in recent memory, a fourth- or fifth-round pick can mean a lot more than a first- or second-round pick. Last year, anyone with the first three picks probably coasted to the playoffs, unless they exploded in Round 4 and drafted a Randy Moss or picked a kicker in Round 6.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Las Vegas' Steven Jackson were that good -- miles ahead of other top-tier running backs.

This season, midround selections have become increasingly valuable, as running back committees and pumped-up passing games have devalued starting running backs and inflated wideouts' value.

Sure, it's early, and there's no need to jump to conclusions. But if you were jumping for joy after grabbing Laurence Maroney and Maurice Jones-Drew with your first two picks, you're probably sitting on your couch, popping bonbons, screaming "Why me?" and tearing out your dreadlocks.

With that in mind, on to the locks of the week:

MONEYMAKERS

Top-tier players who should perform to their value:

• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis running back, vs. Denver: The Colts' second-year back so far has been more than worthy of his early first-round projections. This week, he'll feast on a Broncos run defense that has allowed an average of 166 yards per game. A threat in the receiving game as well, Addai will continue to make Larry Johnson owners curse the fantasy gods.

• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia running back, vs. New York Giants: Facing a Giants defense that has surrendered an average of more than 32 points per game, Westbrook again should put up monster numbers. Honestly, though, I'll never feel confident with Brian "Ow! My hamstring or ankle-or calf!" Westbrook. He's like owning a 1985 Toyota Tercel. One of these days, he's just going to give out.

• Tom Brady, New England quarterback, vs. Cincinnati: At this point, it's becoming a joke. The Patriots' passing game looks so crisp, so perfect, that Bill Belichick might start getting bored and decide to toss backup Matt Cassel into a game. Brady looks like an 8-year-old who just got a PlayStation 3 for Christmas with new wideout Randy Moss, who's out of the pigskin purgatory that is Oakland. And now Brady faces the porous Bengals defense. Run for the hills, folks.

WINGMEN

Midround picks who should feast on favorable matchups:

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota running back, vs. Green Bay: What's not to love about the rookie? He runs with authority. He's faster than a cheetah. He's got more moves than Justin Timberlake, and he's a receiving threat. All hyperbole aside, he is the real deal. While the Packers' defense has looked impressive, Peterson should get plenty of touches and put up in the neighborhood of 170 total yards with a score.

• Marion Barber III, Dallas running back, vs. St. Louis: I couldn't be happier with Barber. I have him in six leagues, and in each he was available in the sixth round. Are my fellow owners that bad? No, but with a new coach in Wade Phillips, a good passing game and a split of the carries with Julius Jones, Barber was far from a lock. So much for that theory. Peg him for 160 all-purpose yards and a score against a reeling Rams team.

• Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay wide receiver, vs. Carolina: What is this, 1997? Every time I see Galloway's name among receiving leaders, I shake my head and go to the waiver wire to see if Eddie George is available. First-year Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia loves Galloway and his deadly quick slant, and the duo will pick apart a Panthers defense that has allowed almost 250 passing yards per game.

BANK-BREAKERS

Top-tier guys who won't perform up to their value:

• Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati running back, vs. New England: Johnson hasn't gotten off to the start most are accustomed to, running for just 177 yards and fumbling twice. While his contributions to the passing game have been a pleasant surprise (92 yards and a score), his nagging hamstring injury is another downgrade. Now, with Kenny Watson expected to get major carries in Week 4 against the Patriots, Johnson is even more suspect.

• Frank Gore, San Francisco running back, vs. Seattle: The oft-injured 49ers back again is dealing with health issues, and he faces a Seahawks defense that has been surprisingly stingy, allowing an average of 16.7 points per game. Don't expect much this week.

• Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis wide receiver, vs. Denver: Harrison is one of the best in the game. Maybe my favorite wideout. But he's facing the best cover corner in football in Champ Bailey, and the Colts have plenty of other weapons. Peyton Manning is known to feast on favorable matchups, so he might look away from Harrison. Also, Manning is falling more in love with tight end Dallas Clark by the day, costing Harrison owners greatly.

QUICK PICK SIX

The best bets for the week, based on value:

Barber, Willis McGahee (vs. Cleveland), Thomas Jones (vs. Buffalo), Donald Driver (vs. Minnesota), Vincent Jackson (vs. Kansas City), Santonio Holmes (vs. Arizona).

Jon Gold is a Review-Journal sportswriter who is in 10 fantasy football leagues. He can be reached at jgold@reviewjournal.com.