Micah Roberts’ NASCAR Sprint Cup driver ratings — extra | Motor Sports

The 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship begins this week on the 1.058-mile track of New Hampshire. Only 60 points separates the top from the bottom as the 12 drivers start a 10 race campaign with the champion being crowned November 21 at Homestead-Miami.

Starting the Chase off with a win is nice but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the road is paved for an eventual title. Kurt Busch accomplished that feat in 2004 when he won the championship in the first ever Chase format, but in the five ensuing years after, the winner of the first Chase race hasn’t gone on to win the title.

Part of the reason is that four-time defending Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson hasn’t won at New Hampshire during the Chase, which is hard to believe considering he has won a record 18 Chase races. Second most on the list of Chase wins is Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle with a mere six wins each. Although Johnson has had four DNF’s this season, he looks to have somewhat of an edge coming in this week. He won for the third time at New Hampshire in the June race and is using the same chassis this week.

What’s surprising about Johnson bringing one of the better cars from his stable is that only he, Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart brought race used cars. Each of the nine other contestants in the Chase brought brand new chassis‘. Johnson and Stewart’s teams have come in with the approach of starting the Chase with their best and it showed in practice. Johnson had the second best average speeds in both of Saturday’s final practices while Stewart -- using his runner-up chassis from the June race -- had the fastest single lap times in the first two practices.

Although New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix are all different in configuration, their relatively flat banking make them all somewhat similar for race set-ups. Even though Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin won at Richmond this year with great cars, they opted to go with new rides. The same goes for Jeff Gordon who finished within the top-four in three of the four races run on the similar tracks this year.

Granted, the crew chiefs of these teams can recreate a set-up onto any car with all their precision notes from the past races. They are geniuses and know more than anyone how their car needs to be, but past history shows over the years that successful cars on similar tracks do better than first time starters. With all the marbles on the line and this being the first of a 10 furlong race, why not go with the best.

One driver who blew away almost everyone in Saturday’s practice using a new car was Clint Bowyer. During the final two practice session, Bowyer had the fastest average lap times and has vaulted himself to being one of the favorites Sunday. The difference between Bowyer and the likes of Kyle Busch, Hamlin, and Gordon using new chassis’ this week is that Bowyer’s four previous races at the similar tracks weren’t as outstanding as the others. Bowyer did have consistent runs on each, but the team obviously felt on this large platform of the Chase that there was room for improvement and it looks like the right call.

When Bowyer won this race to start the Chase in 2007, not only was it his first career win, but it also catapulted him to very strong final finishing position of third in points. Look for a great race out of Bowyer this week and beyond.

In the last 11 races at New Hampshire there have been 11 different winners. A driver who could keep that unique stat going this week is Jeff Gordon who last won there in 1998. In fact, all three of his career wins have come from 1998 and earlier. Despite the drought in wins, Gordon has still managed to finish within the top-four in five of the last eight races run there, of which includes three runner-up finishes.

Gordon’s not exactly coming into the Chase on fire, but he has managed to keep himself in races and be competitive throughout the year even when his car hasn’t been good. He finished the first 26 races of the season second in points because of that consistency and should fare well in the chase format. Winning races is a nice amenity during the Chase, but staying on the track is essential. During the final practice session Gordon was second fastest overall, a nice pick up in speed from the first two practices.

If looking for another driver who can keep the impressive streak of different winners going, you can take a look at two drivers who are out of the Chase, teammates Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya. Each had terrific final practices with McMurray standing out just a notch above Montoya. McMurray led the final practice with the fastest single lap and had the best 10 consecutive lap average in Saturday’s first session. Each of them are using their same chassis’ that raced in June.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. also made a good practice showing Saturday with strong average times. He's using the same chassis that finished eighth in June. While he may not be a driver good enough to win with this week, he should have a quality finish giving him good value in matchup wagers and as a fantasy selection.

Chase Prediction
I’ve made my final wagers to win the Chase based on what I already had bet earlier this year. In December I bet Denny Hamlin at 10 to 1 and then took the approach of waiting for any kind of value along the way. After finally buying into Kevin Harvick being for real, I took him at 10 to 1 in late June. This week I took a chance on two drivers who don’t have any wins on the year, but who I see value in just because of their consistency. Carl Edwards has been a machine since the Firecracker at Daytona and Jeff Gordon has been almost as good. Each had odds of 12 to 1 that I found attractive.

Johnson, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch will all be tough, but I feel confident in Harvick, Gordon and Edwards a bit more just because they haven’t had lengthy lulls in their season like the favorites have. It doesn’t take wins to win the Chase as Tony Stewart proved in 2005 when he won it all with an average finish of 8.7 and no wins. I could see Harvick, Gordon or Edwards doing the same this year. It hasn't been a good bet going against Johnson in the Chase, but it's no fun rooting -- or betting -- for the favorite.

Here’s a look at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book’s oods to win the 2010 Sprint Cup Championship:

JIMMIE JOHNSON 5-2
JEFF GORDON 12
KYLE BUSCH 5
TONY STEWART 10
DENNY HAMLIN 9-2
CARL EDWARDS 12
KURT BUSCH 15
GREG BIFFLE 20
MATT KENSETH 40
CLINT BOWYER 18
KEVIN HARVICK 6
JEFF BURTON 18

Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car -- or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.

Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Sylvania 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 10:16 am (PDT)

Rating    Driver     Odds     Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3

1. Tony Stewart 12/1            1st               3rd              1st              4th
Two time NHMS winner; the last in 2005. Using runner-up chassis from June race.
2. Jimmie Johnson 4/1         7th              25th             8th              3rd
Three wins in 17 starts with a 9.0 average finish; using winning chassis from June.
3. Clint Bowyer 12/1             20th             2nd              5th              6th
2007 fall winner had fastest average speeds in both final practices; new car this week.
4. Denny Hamlin 5/1            10th             22nd           16th             7th
2007 spring winner has a track best 8.2 average finish in nine starts; new car this week.
5. Jamie McMurray 30/1      12th             4th               3rd              1st
Only one top-five finish in 15 career starts; best 10-lap average during second practice.
6. Jeff Gordon 12/1              26th             17th            27th            2nd
Three wins in 31 starts with 12.1 average finish; finished fourth in June race. New car this week.
7. Kurt Busch 12/1               18th             12th             6th             19th
Three-time winner at NHMS with five straight top-six finishes. Using new chassis this week.
8. Juan Pablo Montoya 20/1 21st             5th             10th             5th
Career best finish of third in this race last year; using same chassis from June race.
9. Kyle Busch 5/1                  5th               9th             25th            21st
2006 spring winner with 15.2 average finish; using new car this week. Poor final practices.
10. Kevin Harvick 10/1          19th              27th           24th            27th
2006 fall winner using new chassis this week; consistent on similar tracks. Finished fifth in June.

Note: New Hampshire chassis set-up is similar to Richmond and Phoenix; those who do well on one should do the same on the others.

Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former Race and Sports Book Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He currently writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7Gmail.com.

For more Roberts insight on the New Hampshire race, log onto LVRJ.com/Motorsports.

DRIVER QUOTES

CARL EDWARDS ON RACING AT NEW HAMPSHIRE: "I think Loudon is a good race track. I really enjoy it and have had some success there. I think the biggest challenge this weekend will be getting our setup right. It’s a short race without a lot of cautions, so qualifying will be important. It’s just the regular stuff we deal with at Loudon trying to get track position, but we’ve been qualifying a lot better lately and our set-ups have been pretty good so I’m very optimistic that we will be contenders at Loudon. We need to start off the Chase on the right foot and not get behind from the start.”

KEVIN HARVICK ON HIS CHANCES OF WINNING THE TITLE: Barring things that we can’t control, I think we have as good a chance to win as we have ever had, and it is in our best interest to concentrate on ourselves. I want to do our own thing and concentrate on what we are doing.”

KURT BUSCH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF LOSING THE CHAMPIONSHIP IN NEW HAMPSHIRE “Absolutely. I won (the championship) in ’04 by winning this race. I lost it in ’05 by being taken out on the third lap. I was dumped by a non-Chase guy and I finished 40th. That whole Chase, we were digging out of a hole and when you dig out of a hole, you stretch yourself thin, gamble on a pit stop when you’re not supposed to. We got impatient. It’s easy to get impatient when you’re behind.”

DALE EARNHARDT JR. ON NEW HAMPSHIRE: “I like running at New Hampshire, and I traditionally feel like we are a top-10 team there every time we show up. New Hampshire is a flat track and can be a one-groove track. It’s tough to pass there so qualifying is at a premium. We’ve had a couple of tough weeks, but we’ve been working hard and going back to basics. We’ve also done some testing lately.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE SYLVANIA 300 ODDS & ENDS
compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services
At New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

History
·         Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989.
·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was July 11, 1993.
·         Renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2008.

Notebook
·         There have been 31 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one per year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.
·         Four drivers have competed in all 31 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
·         Mark Martin won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole.
·         Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
·         There have been 16 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
·         20 different drivers have won, led by Jeff Burton (four).
·         Last season, Joey Logano became the all-time youngest NASCAR Sprint Cup race winner at 19 years, one month and four days.
·         Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers who have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners. Johnson, who won the June race, looks to repeat the feat.
·         Hendrick Motorsports has won eight races, more than any other organization.
·         The deepest in the field that a New Hampshire race winner started was 38th, by Jeff Burton in 1999.
·         There have been four winners who started from the pole. The last race winner to win from the pole was Clint Bowyer in 2007. He scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 that event.
·         There have been 11 consecutive different race winners.
·         Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
·         Five drivers got their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at New Hampshire: Joe Nemechek (1999), Robby Gordon (2001), Ryan Newman (2002), Clint Bowyer (2007) and Joey Logano (2009).

NASCAR in New Hampshire
·         There have been 31 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in New Hampshire, all at NHMS.
·         13 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) are listed as New Hampshire natives.
·         There has been one race winner from New Hampshire in NASCAR’s three national series: Jamie Aube. Aube, from Manchester, won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Oxford Plains Speedway in 1987.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 27 of 36 (9-19-10)
Track Size: 1.058 miles
Race Length: 317.4 miles (300 laps)
Banking/Corners: Variable at 2 & 7 degrees
Banking/Straights: 1 degree

Driver Rating at New Hampshire
Tony Stewart                 114.1
Jeff Gordon                   107.9
Jimmie Johnson            107.9
Dale Earnhardt Jr.          99.8
Denny Hamlin                99.8
Mark Martin                   95.5
Jeff Burton                     94.0
Kurt Busch                    93.6
Kevin Harvick                 93.0
Ryan Newman               91.2
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at New Hampshire.

Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec.)
2009 race winner: Mark Martin, 100.753 mph, 9-20-09)
Track qualifying record: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec., 9-20-09)
Track race record: Jeff Burton (117.134 mph, 7-13-97)

Estimated Pit Window: 70-78 laps

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup
·         22 different drivers have made the Chase. All 12 drivers in this year’s field have made a prior Chase.
·         In the 60 Chase races, Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 18 Chase wins. Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are tied for second, with six.
·         Champion’s wins during each Chase:
o    2004: Kurt Busch, one win
o    2005: Tony Stewart, no wins
o    2006: Jimmie Johnson, one win
o    2007: Jimmie Johnson, four wins
o    2008: Jimmie Johnson, three wins
o    2009: Jimmie Johnson four wins
·         Champion’s average finish during each Chase:
o    2004: Kurt Busch, 8.9
o    2005: Tony Stewart, 8.7
o    2006: Jimmie Johnson, 10.8
o    2007: Jimmie Johnson, 5.0
o    2008: Jimmie Johnson, 5.7
o    2009: Jimmie Johnson, 6.8
·         Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to make all seven Chases for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
·         Three drivers have made six Chases: Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth. Gordon missed in 2005; Stewart in 2006; Kenseth in 2009.
·         Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to average a top-10 finish in Chase races (8.4).
·         Three drivers have 20 or more top-five finishes during Chase races: Jimmie Johnson (33), Jeff Gordon (26), Carl Edwards (20) and Matt Kenseth (20).
·         12 drivers have more than 20 top-10 finishes during Chase races: Jimmie Johnson (45), Jeff Gordon (41), Carl Edwards (32), Kurt Busch (32), Tony Stewart (31), Kevin Harvick (29), Matt Kenseth (26), Greg Biffle (26), Jeff Burton (26), Mark Martin (24), Denny Hamlin (23) and Kyle Busch (20).
·         Jimmie Johnson has the most laps led during the Chase (3,190). Matt Kenseth is second with 1,642.
·         Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, two drivers have a Chase Driver Rating of at least 100.0: Jimmie Johnson (110.5) and Jeff Gordon (100.5).
·         Jimmie Johnson’s average start during the Chase is 9.0. He has eight poles in the 60 Chase races, second only to Ryan Newman’s nine.
·         There have been 12 races won by drivers who did not qualify for the Chase. The last to do so was Jamie McMurray, at Talladega last year.
·         Eight qualifying sessions in the Chase have been canceled due to weather.

LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK NASCAR ODDS TO WIN

SYLVANIA 300
NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2010

JIMMIE JOHNSON 4
KYLE BUSCH 5
JEFF GORDON 12
DENNY HAMLIN 5
JEFF BURTON 12
KEVIN HARVICK10
MATT KENSETH 50
CARL EDWARDS 25
GREG BIFFLE 35
KURT BUSCH 12
MARK MARTIN 60
TONY STEWART 12
CLINT BOWYER 12
JUAN MONTOYA 20
KASEY KAHNE 25
JOEY LOGANO 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 35
JAMIE McMURRAY 30
DALE EARNHARDT JR 50
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 30
REED SORENSON 200
DAVID RAGAN 200
AJ ALLMENDINGER 50
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
SAM HORNISH JR 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 500
PAUL MENARD 500
SCOTT SPEED 500
BOBBY LABONTE 3000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 3000
FIELD 200