Not even bye can resuscitate prognosticator

Every week, in his role as ESPN college football analyst, Lou Holtz picks Notre Dame to win. The former Irish coach, who welcomes the perception of a clown, has been correct one of eight times this season.

That winning percentage seems familiar.

After my laughable 2-8 record of point-spread futility four weeks ago, I took a bye week from writing the College Football Forecast.

Taking the extra time to prepare worked. I bounced back with a 2-7 performance.

On the heels of a 4-15 run, I took another week off. And now, motivated by mocking e-mails and voice-mail messages, I'm back for another try while realizing my run of four consecutive winning seasons is all but done.

It reminds me of a Holtz quote: "Don't tell your problems to people. Eighty percent don't care, and the other 20 percent are glad you have them."

My top play this week is Alabama as a 71/2-point home underdog to Louisiana State. Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban, whose team is off a bye, is 6-2 this season with the two losses by a total of 10 points.

Here are seven more plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

NORTHWESTERN (-1) over Iowa; South Carolina (+5) over ARKANSAS; PENN STATE (-7) over Purdue; ARIZONA (+2) over Ucla; OKLAHOMA (-21) over Texas A&M; Washington (-3) over STANFORD; OKLAHOMA STATE (+3) over Texas.