Oddsmakers set for radical shift against Patriots

If the New England Patriots lose quarterback Tom Brady for the rest of the season, expect them to rapidly lose the unprecedented amount of respect they earned over the past year from Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Brady was injured in the first quarter of Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. According to numerous reports, he suffered a serious left knee injury that will end his season.

The status of Brady, the NFL's reigning Most Valuable Player, could be announced today.

Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books, said oddsmakers will make dramatic adjustments to the Patriots' power rating minus Brady.

"I think it's really bad. The injury is worse than what they're saying," said Vaccaro, who gives New England "no chance" to win the Super Bowl without their star quarterback.

"I make them legitimately 50-1 to win it without Brady," Vaccaro said.

The Patriots often were favored by double digits -- and sometimes by more than 20 points -- as they went 16-0 last regular season. If Brady is gone, so are those inflated lines.

New England was a 16-point favorite Sunday in its 17-10 victory over the Chiefs.

Brady's backup, Matt Cassel, has little experience, and Vaccaro said no player in the league is worth more points to the betting line than Brady.

"A normal quarterback would be three to four points. I've got Brady at seven to eight," Vaccaro said.

The Patriots play Brett Favre and the New York Jets in Week 2. Lucky's posted an early line, before Brady's injury, with New England a 51/2-point road favorite. Vaccaro said he expects the Jets to now be "at least" 2-point favorites.

"If it's less than that, I think the money shows on the Jets," Vaccaro said. "The Patriots are still a good team, but their defense is older."

Vaccaro said Buffalo is his pick to win the AFC East. The Bills closed as 2-point favorites and blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 34-10.

Sharp money was on the Bills, Vaccaro said, and also on the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Panthers, 9-point road underdogs, stunned the San Diego Chargers, 26-24. Jake Delhomme's 14-yard touchdown pass to Dante Rosario as time expired won it for Carolina.

Donovan McNabb passed for three touchdowns as the Eagles embarrassed the St. Louis Rams, 38-3. The line on Philadelphia rose from 71/2 to 9 points.

The betting public also was correct to back the Dallas Cowboys, who closed as 61/2-point favorites in a 28-10 victory at Cleveland.

Vaccaro said a "fair day" for the sports books was made better when the Chicago Bears upset the Indianapolis Colts, 29-13. The Bears were 10-point underdogs.

Lucky's has five sports books in Nevada, including the Plaza in Las Vegas and the Grand Sierra Resort in Reno, and it hopes to add six more locations by the end of the month.

"I was really, really happy with the handle," Vaccaro said. "The crowd was steady, and there was plenty of business. It was a typical NFL opening Sunday. This is amazing, because every year there seems to be more people betting this stuff."

Favorites are 8-6 against the spread in Week 1.

In today's games, Green Bay is a 2-point home favorite over Minnesota, and Denver is a 3-point road favorite over Oakland.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2907.