Plenty of value in underdogs

Last week's NFL results were unusual for yours truly.

I thought there were a lot of live underdogs, and it certainly looked as if more would cover, including the Bills, Texans, Rams and Redskins. But when the dust cleared, favorites went 10-5 against the spread (10-6 if you count the Bears over the Broncos, as that line closed as a pick 'em at the Las Vegas Hilton, though the Bears were favored all week).

Usually that spells doom for my bankroll, as I tend to prosper when the 'dogs are barking and struggle when favorites cover, but I found some of the right 'dogs and went 3-2 with my top plays.

I'm hoping that with the public continuing to cash on these favorites -- and add the Cowboys over the Packers on Thursday -- they'll keep betting that way and underdog players will find value going forward.

I have four more 'dogs today that are getting about a touchdown apiece, plus the biggest home 'dog in NFL betting history Monday (home team in CAPS).

• Jaguars (+61/2) over COLTS: The Colts are struggling and continue to get more point-spread respect than they deserve. Blowing out the Falcons on Thanksgiving is hardly impressive, and the Colts are clearly not the same team since giving up the lead against the Patriots, as they followed with a loss to the Chargers and a failure to cover against the Chiefs. But now Indy faces a much better team in the Jaguars, who have held three straight opponents to 17 points or fewer and usually play the Colts tough. Add in the fact the Jags offense is clicking with David Garrard back at quarterback and the power running of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and they have a strong upset chance.

• Bills (+6) over REDSKINS: Many might assume I'm picking the Bills because of the Redskins being devastated by the murder of Sean Taylor, but I had this game circled before that tragedy. The Redskins have come up short the past two weeks with chances for upset victories, and I have to look the other way now that they're giving this many points. This should be a close, low-scoring game that comes down to a field goal either way.

• CHIEFS (+6) over Chargers: Like the Colts, the Chargers usually get extra points in the line based on reputation. Here we have a home 'dog getting nearly a touchdown against a team it beat 30-16 in Week 4 at San Diego. The Chiefs are down to their fourth-string running back, but the Chargers allow nearly 115 rushing yards a game (21st in the league). The overrated San Diego defense is allowing 340.6 yards per game (21st); the Chiefs are a surprising 10th at 311.6 yards allowed.

• Bengals (+7) over STEELERS: The Bengals played their most complete game last week in a 35-6 win over the Titans. A lot of people will make excuses for the Steelers' performance last week in the ketchup-like mud at Heinz Field, but I've thought all season they weren't as good as their record. The Bengals look like a live underdog that wants to salvage a little of its season on national TV.

• RAVENS (+201/2) over Patriots: The Ravens have woefully underachieved but could step up in prime time. This line was right around this number before the Pats nearly lost to the Eagles last Sunday, so I was surprised it didn't drop some. The Ravens probably won't match the Pats score for score, but if they don't turn the ball over, they've shown enough offensive pop to make a game of it.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 30-29-1

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.