Quarterback injuries can cause radical line shifts

A new episode of "As The World Turns," starring Tiger Woods, wasn't the only breaking news of the week in the sports world.

At 10:35 a.m. Thursday, the New England-Miami game disappeared from the NFL wagering boards across Nevada with the news of an apparent head injury suffered by Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, making his appearance at Miami questionable.

The oddsmakers quickly calculated numbers with Brady in the game and with Brady out.

New England coach Bill Belichick's propensity for cloak-and-dagger injury reports made this a quandary for the sports books. Was it an empty rumor, or did the reports that surfaced have merit?

As it stood Saturday, the Patriots were 4-point favorites at most books. But the line was as high as 61/2 and as low as 31/2. Brady is expected to start.

The disparity between Brady and backup Brian Hoyer kept the game off the board for a while. Money already had come in on the Dolphins early Thursday, with the line dropping 11/2 points and the total diving toward the under by two points.

According to Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba, there was no gray area when sending out the alert.

"With Brady out of the lineup, the difference was at least seven full points on the board," he said.

Many books reopened the game after several hours, as the number crept back up. Other books waited until Friday morning to flip the switch and take action again.

Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, detailed the reaction around town. "We certainly don't take any injuries lightly, especially when you're talking about a player of Brady's caliber," he said. "We've lowered the limits on the game and will closely monitor any betting patterns leading up to kickoff."

While acknowledging that most NFL coaches are incapable of looking more than one play ahead, let's look a week down the road in the NFC if things fall into place today.

Arizona looked to be home and cooled in the NFC West, but if Brett Favre's roll continues, and San Francisco can sneak a win out of Seattle, next week's Cardinals-49ers game would be for first place in the division. Far fetched? I don't think so.

The betting public could not reach a consensus opinion on today's San Francisco-Seattle game. Depending where you shop, there are books that feature both the 49ers and Sea-hawks as slight favorites.

The battle of aging Hall of Fame quarterbacks playing like teenagers will be the icing on the cake tonight in Arizona. How have the Minnesota Vikings' Favre (age 40) and the Cardinals' Kurt Warner (38) been able to hold off Father Time while still playing at such a high level?

"The rule changes have certainly played a role in their continued prowess," Seba said. "You can't sneeze on the quarterback anymore, and the wide receivers can run untouched through the secondary these days. On the plus side, they're both savvy quarterbacks, and there's no substitute for the years of experience they possess."

A huge game with NFC wild-card implications is in Atlanta, where the Falcons basically face a must-win situation without Matt Ryan running the offense and star running back Michael Turner a game-time decision. The Philadelphia Eagles are 51/2-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have an opportunity to drive a dagger through the heart of the reeling New York Giants at the Meadowlands. The Cowboys are 21/2-point favorites.

New York's offense has been anemic in recent weeks, as the Giants are 1-4 in their past five games. They have struggled with a hobbled Eli Manning and bizarre play calling from offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride.

"It's hard to fathom, but the Giants look completely dead," LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi said. "Manning is clearly playing hurt, and defensively they can't get off the field."

Seba notes his power ratings on the Giants have plummeted since they opened the season 5-0.

"They absolutely for a time looked like one of the best teams in football," Seba said. "Now, the Giants' numbers have dropped to the tune of five points a game."

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.