Ryan has Falcons on rise
Under normal circumstances, betting on rookie quarterbacks on the road is hazardous to your financial health. But there are exceptions to every rule, and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons is one.
Ryan is more advanced than most NFL rookies, and his next opponent is the self-destructing Oakland Raiders.
The Falcons do not need to wait years to find out if their franchise quarterback will be a winner. They already know the answer two months into Ryan's career.
Atlanta, 4-3 straight up and against the spread, hit the trifecta in its rebuilding plan by drafting Ryan, signing running back Michael Turner and hiring coach Mike Smith.
What's going on with Oakland, 2-5 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, is a mess by comparison.
The Raiders are unsure what they have in second-year QB JaMarcus Russell, and their best asset might be rookie running back Darren McFadden, but he's doubtful for Sunday with a toe injury.
Ryan is not dissecting the league's best defenses, but he does have two good legs and a better passer rating (79.7) than Indianapolis' Peyton Manning (79.0).
Ryan has passed for 1,441 yards and seven touchdowns, and his development has been assisted by Turner, who ranks third in the league with 655 yards rushing.
Rookie quarterbacks are not always student drivers sure to wreck the team bus on the road. Baltimore's Joe Flacco won at Miami two weeks ago, and Ryan beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Oct. 5.
Last week, Ryan put the Falcons in position to upset Philadelphia on the road, but a blown call late in the fourth quarter led to the Eagles' clinching touchdown.
The Raiders, 3-11 against the spread in their past 14 home games, are more inclined to fall to pieces than paint a masterpiece.
Atlanta appears to be a good bet as a 21/2-point favorite.
Four more plays for Week 9 (Home team in CAPS):
• BILLS (-51/2) over Jets: Brett Favre has been showing his bad side, throwing seven of his 11 interceptions in the past three games. The Jets' four wins came against Miami, Arizona, Cincinnati and Kansas City. Buffalo has a stronger defense, needs a division win and is solid at home against the spread under coach Dick Jauron.
• Packers (+5) over TITANS: Green Bay won two in a row before its bye week, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers' sore shoulder is in better shape. This is a good spot for the Packers to pull the upset. Tennessee is 7-0 straight up and against the spread. But the Titans had a short week of preparation after Monday's win over the Colts, who controlled the game for three quarters. The biggest concern is Green Bay's shaky run defense.
• BRONCOS (-3) over Dolphins: Denver's defense ranks 30th in the league, allowing 394.6 yards and 27.9 points per game, and those numbers were compiled before cornerback Champ Bailey was lost to injury. But the Broncos and QB Jay Cutler can outscore Miami. Denver coach Mike Shanahan has covered five straight after a bye.
• Cowboys (+81/2) over GIANTS: As badly as quarterback Brad Johnson has played in two starts, he needs only to be decent in this game for Dallas to cover. The key to the Cowboys' chances is establishing running back Marion Barber.
Last week: 4-0-1 against the spread
Season: 22-15-3
Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans can be reached at 702-387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.
