Shaq gamble put to the test
Two months ago, the Phoenix Suns took a big gamble by dealing for Shaquille O'Neal, who was criticized for being overpaid, overweight and over the hill. It's now time for O'Neal to answer the critics.
The NBA playoffs are usually about dramatic endings. This year, however, the beginning holds plenty of intrigue.
When the postseason starts Saturday, the Suns and defending champion San Antonio Spurs meet in a highly anticipated Western Conference showdown.
The Spurs are 4-point home favorites in Game 1 and minus-150 favorites to win the best-of-7 series.
"The Spurs-Suns series could be just as good as the NBA Finals," MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker said. "But it won't be bet like the Finals.
"I think Phoenix is a pretty live 'dog. I didn't like the trade for Shaq at the time, but in this series, Shaq is going to be very important."
O'Neal, acquired in a trade with Miami on Feb. 6, was supposed to be the physical center the Suns needed to battle with the Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. After a slow transition, O'Neal has picked up the pace and complemented Amare Stoudemire.
Phoenix, 55-27 and the No. 6 seed in the West, seems to have the makeup to match up with San Antonio (56-26). The Suns dealt the Spurs a 17-point loss in San Antonio two weeks ago.
The Spurs are rock solid defensively, but they lack scoring options outside the dependable threesome of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.
San Antonio lost three of its last seven games and averaged only 79 points in the last five games. In recent postseasons, the Spurs relied on veteran Robert Horry's outside shooting, but a knee injury has sidelined Horry.
"The Spurs are starting to look and play their age," said handicapper Jim Kruger (Vegassportsauthority.com). "Without Horry, who is going to body-block Steve Nash into the scorer's table to help turn a series around?"
Still, betting against the Spurs, 54-35 against the spread in the postseason since 2003, is a risky proposition.
"Every matchup is phenomenal in the West," Walker said. "I don't remember a time when you could say you were really looking forward to all the first-round games."
The top-seeded Lakers (57-25) are minus-700 favorites over the Denver Nuggets, and Kruger expects Kobe Bryant to render the Nuggets defenseless. Los Angeles averaged 118 points while sweeping the three-game regular-season series.
"This should be a fairly fast series," Kruger said. "Denver has two scoring options, Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. The Lakers have much better balance, and the smallish backcourt of the Nuggets has a very difficult time matching up with Kobe."
New Orleans is a minus-145 favorite over Dallas, and Kruger is betting on the Hornets to advance. The Mavericks went 16-13 after trading for veteran point guard Jason Kidd.
Utah is a minus-220 favorite over Houston. The Rockets are underdogs despite having home-court advantage, and Walker said early wagering Thursday was in support of the Jazz.
"I'm not too excited about the East," Walker said.
The top-seeded Boston Celtics (66-16) finished 24 games over .500 against the spread. The Celtics, who authored the biggest one-season turnaround in league history, are 9-5 favorites to win the NBA Finals, with the Lakers the second choice at 5-2.
The first round's biggest mismatch -- and odds disparity -- features the Celtics over the Atlanta Hawks. Boston is a 45-1 favorite (minus-4,500) at MGM Mirage books and a 90-1 favorite at the Las Vegas Hilton.
"The Hawks will be out of the playoffs faster than it takes Oscar Goodman to get to a photo op," said Kruger, who is calling for a Boston-Washington series in the second round.
Cleveland is a minus-125 favorite over Washington, but Kruger said the Wizards will pull a minor upset with Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison upstaging Le-Bron James' one-man show.
"LeBron's back is giving him problems, and he cannot carry the load himself in the playoffs," said Kruger, noting the Cavaliers are 14-13 since trading for center Ben Wallace.
In the East's other first-round matchups, Detroit is a minus-1,200 favorite over Philadelphia, and Orlando is a minus-300 favorite over Toronto.
Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
