Tiger’s still the choice among lesser-knowns

Among golf's four major tournaments, the British Open is seemingly the most difficult to handicap.

The field is loaded with lesser-known European players well-equipped to handle the links-style courses. The weather can change by the minute, making the luck of the draw with tee times nearly impossible to predict.

It seems just about everyone has a chance to compete for the title.

Perhaps there is only one sure thing about setting the odds for who will raise the claret jug each year: No matter how he is playing or what is going on around him, Tiger Woods is the favorite.

That is especially true at St. Andrews, where Woods cruised to victories the last two times the course has come up in the rotation.

"He's the top choice. He loves St. Andrews. I believe it's one of his top two or three courses, so I do expect Tiger to play well," said Mike Colbert, sports book director at the M Resort. "I don't think I'd bet against him, even though he has not been good."

Despite his recent struggles, Woods is again the clear-cut choice to win at around 5-1 or 11-2, depending where you shop. But he is not quite as prohibitive a favorite as at past majors.

"I think if this was any other year at St. Andrews, he'd probably be 2-1. So you're probably getting triple the price which makes it enticing," Colbert said.

"But it's going to be a lot tougher for him to win. I've got to believe he's going to get heckled over there. He'll probably take some abuse. He's pretty good at blocking it out, but he's still human and it seems to be affecting him now more than ever."

It seems like forever ago now, with all that has gone on in his life over the past year, but Woods missed the cut at the British Open last summer before all of his off-course struggles.

That strife has led to inconsistent play, but Woods can never be counted out.

Jeff Sherman, golf oddsmaker at the Las Vegas Hilton, points out Woods has actually fared well in majors this year.

"As up and down as his year's been, the two majors he's played in, he's finished fourth in each one. People are overlooking that. He's got two top-fives in two majors so far," Sherman said, cautioning bettors not to dismiss the world's No. 1 player.

"He's won the last two times it's been here, and I just read today that he switched to a new putter for the first time in years. If he can cure the putting woes he's got, you can't discount him."

In addition to odds to win the tournament, the Hilton has about 40 golfer matchups available for wagering, as well as several propositions.

Bettors can wager on the winning score being over/under 277.5 strokes, or the lowest completed round by any player being over/under 65.5.

Sherman said the opportunity is there for players to go low.

"St. Andrews isn't the typical British Open course with the knee-high rough. This course is more forgiving," he said.

There also are props on final finish position for several golfers, as well as whether or not they will make the cut.

Successfully predicting a playoff will be needed to determine the champion would currently net a bettor a hefty price of plus-270, while the price on a successful hole-in-one stands at plus 160.

Sherman said the weather in Scotland is as big a factor as any in handicapping the tournament.

"Here, (a player's score) can really be affected either positively or negatively based on how the weather changes around their tee time," he said. "There's a real uncertainty and there can be a huge advantage in either teeing off early or late and the weather at that time."

Lee Westwood, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy are among the group of golfers bunched behind Woods at around 15-1.

Justin Rose, who was mentioned by both sports book directors as a threat to win, is available at as much as 20-1. The time to bet him may have passed, however.

"There was real good value on Justin Rose up until a few weeks ago," Sherman said. "He was 50-1 until he won two tournaments in the last few weeks. He's a really hot golfer right now."

Sherman also likes McIlroy, but said bettors hoping to take a flyer on true long shots can look at players such as the Molinari brothers, Francesco and Eduardo, or Ricky Barnes, who has "played exceptionally well at majors and is really hot right now."

Bettors are cautioned to get their money down today. The tournament tees off at about 10:30 p.m. PDT today, though several local books will offer updated odds and matchups each day throughout the event.

Contact reporter Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com or 702-224-5509.