‘Unders’ rule in first week
It was old hat in Week 1 of the NFL regular season: fantastic finishes, controversial calls and coaches mismanaging the clock and game situations.
Football is officially back, including the headaches and developing ulcers that come with it.
Low-scoring games were aplenty in the opening week, as nine of the 16 games went under the total (two scores fell on the number).
"It's not surprising at all that 'unders' ruled the day," Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba said. "Offenses are still searching to find their stride and get in sync. We've seen this before."
A major reason for lackluster scoring could be the way teams protect players at skill positions during the preseason. It's a trade-off fans can live with early in the season. There's nothing worse than seeing a team's hopes dashed by injury in a meaningless game, but it can come with the price of starting slowly in the regular season.
In games that went over the total last week, some of the quarterbacks were Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Vince Young. Schaub and Young were assisted in major ways by their running backs.
Sensing the drift here? Where have all the good quarterbacks gone? The rules are geared to help the passing game, yet defenses are starting to rule the day. What about the immense dropoff from the top-tier quarterbacks to those in the middle of the pack to the bottom-feeders?
"There's a definite pecking order when grading out the quarterbacks," Seba said. "It's easy to blame the quarterback for a team's inefficiency. Their stats across the board were actually pretty solid last week in terms of yardage, but they just didn't produce the points. Early in the year, red-zone production is usually a bit suspect."
Four quarterbacks were felled by injury: Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb, Detroit's Matt Stafford, Carolina's Matt Moore and Cleveland's Jake Delhomme.
Last season, teams that opened on the road and played their home opener in Week 2 had their fair share of problems, going 5-7 straight up and 4-8 against the spread. If that trend repeats itself, there will be plenty of 'dogs barking, as 13 teams play today for the first time on their home field.
The loss of Jets nose tackle Kris Jenkins could open the door for teams to run on them. New York remained a stellar defensive unit last season when he was lost to a similar injury, but his absence will have an impact over the long run.
Money has been flowing against the Jets for their AFC East showdown with New England today. The Patriots opened as 1-point road favorites, the line was bet to 2½ during the week and it might close at New England minus-3.
Running back Ryan Grant's loss should slow Green Bay. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers can throw it around with the best of them, but teams usually need balance on offense. There has been no impact on the line this past week regarding the Packers, who are 13-point home favorites over Buffalo.
Two teams have had the luxury of extra rest and additional time to prepare for their opponents. New Orleans beat Minnesota 14-9 on Sept. 9, but playing in the Thursday season opener might actually backfire based on past results.
Since 2003, those teams have gone 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS the following week.
Brett Favre and the Vikings host Miami today, and Drew Brees and the Saints must wait until Monday night to play at San Francisco.
Brian Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on ESPN (1100 AM) and 98.9 FM, can be reached at blessproductions@yahoo.com.
