Winning in preseason requires more research

What a long six months it has been for those who crave the adrenaline rush that comes from the challenge of wagering on NFL games.

Instead of passing time with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, we've been suffocated with celebrity gossip and the pathetic adventures of Lindsay Lohan, Paris Hilton and Britney Spears.

It's about enough to make a real man sick.

But life returns to normal Sunday, when the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers take the field for the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The Steelers are 3-point favorites with a total of 34, and it's perfectly OK to visit a sports book and place a bet.

Handicapping the NFL preseason does not make one a candidate for an insane asylum. The games are beatable, and the pursuit can be profitable.

"I do reasonably well in the preseason, and I don't criticize anyone who does or doesn't bet it," handicapper Kelso Sturgeon said. "I understand why guys don't handicap it and don't want to bet it. But I do think for guys who have a feel for it, there's an opportunity."

The NFL might not be as predictable in August as it is in December. It just requires a more homework to win preseason wagers.

Studying quarterback rotations is the starting point and easiest route to breaking down the preseason. It's also far from the only factor.

The Saints will not allow Brees, who led the league with 4,418 yards passing last season, to take more than a handful of snaps Sunday. And don't count on Reggie Bush being in the game long enough to make many big plays.

So the key figure for New Orleans becomes its No. 2 quarterback, veteran Jamie Martin. He will be followed by Jason Fife and Tyler Palko, two young and unproven passers.

"The Saints have less quality depth at quarterback than any team in the NFL," Sturgeon said. "If anything would happen to Brees, the Saints are dead. Brees is not going to play much against a team that is really trying."

After Steelers starter Ben Roethlisberger makes an early exit, the offense will be handed over to Charlie Batch and Brian St. Pierre. A slight edge at quarterback could be given to Pittsburgh, whose starting running back, Willie Parker, is doubtful with a knee injury.

Another important factor is coaching. Some coaches believe preseason games build a foundation for winning, while others want only to escape without injuries.

Mike Tomlin, the Steelers' first-year coach, probably has more of a desire to prove something in the preseason than second-year Saints coach Sean Payton.

"Tomlin has an ego the size of a mountain, and he's going to come out firing," said Sturgeon, who is siding with Pittsburgh. "Need is the most powerful motivator in the preseason.

"Some teams need to do well and need to make things happen, and that will dictate how hard they play or how they game plan."

New England coach Bill Belichick and Denver's Mike Shanahan are known for approaching the preseason with a purpose.

Sturgeon said three coaches to watch this preseason are the New York Giants' Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio and Tampa Bay's Jon Gruden. All are feeling some kind of pressure.

"Those are three guys that you know are going to try to do something at some point in the preseason," said Sturgeon (kelsosportshandicapping.com).

Cleveland's Romeo Crennel has a horrible regular-season record, but he is 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in the preseason. Carolina's John Fox is a reliable 15-5 straight up and 12-7-1 against the spread the past five years.

Kansas City's Herman Edwards consistently wins preseason games, but this month might be different. Chiefs running back Larry Johnson is holding out from camp, and Sturgeon called Kansas City's quarterback battle between Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle a "disaster waiting to happen."

According to Sturgeon's power ratings, the San Diego Chargers are 3 points better than the league's next-best teams, Indianapolis and New England. But Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson always sits out the preseason.

"During the regular season, there are few X-factors," Sturgeon said. "Each team has well-established starters who will play the entire game, a fairly predictable game plan and a performance profile that seldom changes. None of this exists during the preseason."

Beyond coaches, quarterbacks and running backs, it's imperative to research depth charts and game plans by reading stories from around the league.

"Handicapping the preseason certainly is not a trip to 'The Twilight Zone.' But it goes far beyond quarterback rotations," Sturgeon said. "There's so much information out there that if you can read between the lines, you can beat the preseason. But you've got to dig for information."