Palin brilliant pick, but Obama/Biden well ahead

We'll know a bit more when the Republican convention is done and the "bounce" effect on polls settles down. But early polls indicate the Gov. Palin pick for GOP VP was a brilliant pick. It mitigated the bounce expected from Obama's historic speech last week and it has pulled McCain/Palin to a one point lead over Obama/Biden in the nationwide Zogby poll (47%/46%).

Also buried within the latest Zogby poll is this little fact: "Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters."

So, McCain has the Wal-Mart shopper vote, whatever that means.

But before Republicans get too excited, national horserace polls and Wal-Mart polls are not how presidents get elected. They are elected state-by-state via the electoral college. And those smart political analysts who watch that closely say that this race is far less close. In fact, all the ingredients are in place for Obama/Biden to absolutely clean the clock of McCain/Palin. Jim Vandehei and John F. Harris writing for Politico.com size it up this way:

"Let’s stop pretending this race is as close as national polling suggests. The truth is McCain is essentially tied or trailing in every swing state that matters — and too close for comfort in several states like Indiana and Montana the GOP usually wins pretty easily in presidential races. On top of that, voters seem very inclined to elect Democrats in general this election — and very sick of the Bush years.

"McCain could easily lose in an electoral landslide. That is the private view of Democrats and Republicans alike."

I think that assessment is closer to the truth at this moment than the nationwide horserace polls. But of course, It ain't over 'till its over.