Political odds man projects Sandoval in Nevada governor race

Political forecaster Nate Silver says there's a 96 percent chance Republican Brian Sandoval will defeat Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor. 

The pick is included with projections for gubernatorial races across the country. 

Silver projects Democrats will lose more than six seats to Republicans and control 30 governorships nationwide.

The national numbers are important because governors will have influence on the redistricting process that comes with the results of the 2010 census.

Silver projects Sandoval, a former federal judge, will defeat Reid, chairman of the Clark County Commission, 55 to 43 percent, a 12-point margin that is smaller than the average gap of about 19 percentage points in a compilation of polls by Real Clear Politics.

Silver explains that statistical models show governor races, more so than those for U.S. House of Representatives or Senate, tend to tighten late.

Although Sandoval is ahead in the polls, Reid -- son of Senate majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. -- has proved to be a prolific fund raiser and is expected to unleash a barrage of advertising in September aimed at closing the gap. Reid also started campaigning for the job nearly two years ago and has built a large campaign infrastructure. Democrats also outnumber Republicans in Nevada and are more organized statewide, which should benefit Reid.