Poll has mixed signals for Ensign in 2012

Only a week after election 2010, are you ready for an early poll on election 2012?

A survey out today by Public Policy Polling seeks to gauge Republican support for Sen. John Ensign, who is carrying some heavy ethics baggage as he weighs a re-election bid.

According to the poll, Ensign carries a 64-23 job approval rating with Nevada voters who said they usually vote in Republican primaries. Among self-described conservatives he got a thumbs up among 71 percent.

The survey concludes Ensign "remains relatively popular with Nevada Republicans" and could prevail if pitted in a primary against Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki or Rep. Dean Heller, although some factors would favor Heller in their matchup.

"The bottom line: Heller certainly could beat Ensign but it wouldn't be a slam dunk and he has to decide if he's willing to give up a relatively safe House seat to try for that," pollster Tom Jensen writes.

Of course much could happen in the coming months as the Justice Department and the Senate ethics committee continue to investigate ethics allegations stemming from Ensign's admitted extramarital relationship, and as Republican leaders in Washington ponder whether Ensign is best situated to keep the Nevada seat in GOP hands.

Until then, Jensen writes, "I would not take it for granted that Ensign is dead in the water for reelection, either in the primary or general. He certainly might lose but there are a lot of other senators without his personal baggage who have far worse approval numbers and David Vitter's resounding reelection in Louisiana last week showed voters are willing to put that stuff aside if they feel one of their officials is otherwise doing a good job."

Vitter won a new Senate term last week, three years after being identified as the client of a prostitution service.