Romney will win (?)

The so-called smart money says that President Obama will easily win re-election. Although the national horse-race polls show it close, and all of the swing states show it close, Obama is ahead in all of them. Come election night the swing states will start falling a few hours after the polls close, giving the president a clear win.

Just two weeks ago Republican guru Karl Rove's analysis had Obama just 13 electoral votes away from a win.

That's the scenario that rings the bell of most political analysts.

But now comes a University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors. It has correctly forecast every presidential election since 1980. And it says Mitt Romney will win.

The key, the university says, is the horrible economy. Using a prediction model that stresses economic data state-by-state, "it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble."

Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College (well short of the 270 needed) and he will lose the popular vote 47.1 percent to 52.9 percent.

Take it or leave it, of course. But I thought you'd like to know, especially since this study will not likely gain much attention nationwide.

PS -- I wrote something along the same lines for Nevada readers a few weeks back. It's worth a reread: "How Does Romney Not Win Nevada?"

PPS -- I have a buddy (Harry Reid would call him a "source") who is one of the smartest political thinkers I know. He also doesn't like Romney and won't vote for him. He now says this election will look a lot like the 1980 election. Very close, but with independents breaking for Romney in the last two weeks, sending Obama back to Chicago.

PPPs -- Me, you ask? I think this election is Obama's to lose. But the Ryan pick for VP may prove to be a genius move.