Watch the Reid race early, not late

Assuming that by sun up tomorrow we know who the GOP standard-bearer will be in the U.S. Senate race against Nevada's Harry Reid, here's what to expect.

Over the next 45 days, Sen. Harry Reid and his allies will unleash a negative campaign of epic proportion against the GOP challenger. Reid has money, organization and powerful friends, which gives him a distinct advantage early. If the negative campaigning gains traction and Reid can somehow make his challenger look less appealing than himself to Nevada voters (a tall order, BTW), then we'll have a close race in November.

So, watch this race earlier rather than later.

There's not much middle ground with the electorate on Sen. Reid. Of course, he has his die-hard supporters and they are with him today as they will be in November. But everyone else wouldn't cast a vote for Reid if he were the only candidate on the ballot.

Reid's difficult challenge is to fracture that anyone-but-Reid vote.

If he can't do that by mid July, then this race will likely be over.

(Credit where credit is due: This assessment comes courtesy of national political analyst Dick Morris, who spoke in Nevada a few months back on this topic. )