Sandoval, Republicans defy cynical expectations

CARSON CITY

First off, let me admit this: I was wrong.

Writing in 2013 and 2014 about The Education Initiative, I warned voters that if that 2 percent margins tax failed, it would be a long, long time before the state would see another serious debate about taxes.

“First, this is undeniably the first real chance of getting a long-overdue business tax on the books since at least 2003, when the Nevada Legislature couldn’t muster the votes for a gross receipts tax,” I wrote on Sept. 6, 2013. “If this tax fails, it will be a long time before the state gets another shot. That’s especially true since the Nevada Legislature seems institutionally incapable of seriously addressing tax policy.”

But as the Legislature just proved, with the right leadership, it can address tax policy.

In October 2014, I was skeptical when Las Vegas Sun owner Brian Greenspun wrote in his newspaper that voters should reject The Education Initiative, in favor of a coalition of business and labor seeking a legislative solution to the chronic funding problems of Nevada’s schools, which endured cuts in the recession and have never been funded to the national average.

“That requires the voters to simply trust that a.) there actually is a deal, b.) it’s a good deal, and c.) it will actually happen once the threat of The Education Initiative is gone,” I wrote.

But it did happen.

When Republicans took over the state Legislature and all its constitutional offices, I had little hope that something was going to happen.

“Personally, I’m skeptical,” I wrote on Nov. 8, 2014. “Sandoval is a popular governor, and his party now controls both houses of the Legislature. But former Gov. Kenny Guinn was pretty popular, too, and he failed to get a gross receipts tax passed in 2003. Building coalitions for tax increases is tough enough in normal times; now we’ve seen a Republican sweep that drowned a tax initiative by a 79-percent-to-21-percent margin.

“Perhaps I’ll be proved wrong, and the new Republican majority will find a solution that’s eluded the Legislature for decades.”

And I was proved wrong. The new Republican majority — along with their Democratic colleagues — did find a solution that’s eluded the Legislature for decades.

In that same column, then newly elevated state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson said, “You’d be much better off with a Republican majority. The governor needs at least one house with his party to push forward his agenda.”

He got two, albeit a divided Assembly in which some members worked actively against tax increases, and several constitutional officers who railed fecklessly against them.

A word here about Gov. Brian Sandoval: I was surprised when he presented his idea for tax reform, a progressive levy based on business revenue. I was even more surprised when, after meeting resistance to that idea, he refused to back down and kept that tax as part of a compromise proposal. The governor and his talented executive staff did something historic: They made fundamental changes to the way Nevada does business. That owes directly to the governor’s political skill and leadership. No matter what else, the Sandoval legacy is secure.

Democrats rightly fear the headline that it took Republicans to raise taxes and reform schools. (Remember, the last serious tax policy discussion took place under Republican Guinn in 2003.) That owes more to the personality and drive of the man in the governor’s mansion, and to thoughtful, individual lawmakers, than it does to party affiliation. And while Democrats can say honestly that Republicans could not have done it without them and their votes, the fact is Republicans in the governor’s mansion and the leadership offices of the Legislature drove the debate from start to finish.

I fully admit my skepticism when it came to taxes and the 2015 Legislature. I expected a middling, incremental reform, the kind in which lawmakers specialize. Instead, we got remarkable reforms and hope for a promising future for Nevada’s kids, its economy and its residents.

Steve Sebelius is a Las Vegas Review-Journal political columnist who blogs at SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.