State Republicans have the money advantage in key legislative races

CARSON CITY - Democrats are winning the voter registration game ahead of the Nov. 6 election but are behind in what may be the most important factor in elections: money.

Republican candidates have drawn appreciably more campaign contributions than their Democratic opponents for five state Senate seats that will determine which party controls the upper house in 2013. While other Senate races are in solid Democratic or Republican districts, these five are up for grabs. Studies show the candidates in legislative and congressional races who raise the most money are most likely to win.

A Center for Responsive Politics nationwide study found that in 2010 top-spending candidates won 83 percent to 85 percent of U.S. legislative races.

A National Institute on Money in State Politics analysis of 2010 Nevada financial disclosure reports shows that winning Assembly candidates on average raised $146,005 while losing candidates raised $23,827. Winning state Senate candidates raised $213,183 while losing candidates raised $102,908.

Contribution and expenditure reports filed with the secretary of state's office show that in Clark County's Senate districts 5, 6, 9 and 18 that Republicans Steve Kirk, Mark Hutchison, Mari Nakashima St. Martin and Scott Hammond pulled in more money as of Oct. 17 than did their respective Democrat opponents, Joyce Woodhouse, Benny Yerushalmi, Justin Jones and Kelli Ross.

Hutchison, in District 6, reported contributions of $514,597 - a mammoth amount for a state Senate race - compared with Yerushalmi's $252,071. Hutchison spent $339,339, leaving him more than $175,000 heading into the homestretch. Yerushalmi spent $224,982, leaving him with less than $28,000.

While raising money is important, Sen. Mo Denis, D-Las Vegas, said, what really wins elections is getting your party's voters to the polls. That is where they have the advantage over Republicans in this year's election, he said.

"I said all along we weren't going to out-raise the Republicans, but at the end of the day you have to get your folks to turn out and vote," added Denis, who probably will be the leader of Senate Democrats. "We have a lot of volunteers. We don't have to spend as much as they do."

That seems to be working for Democrats. The latest early voting figures show 373,612 ballots cast. Of those voters, 45.8 percent were Democrats, 36.1 percent Republicans and 18.1 percent other parties or no npartisans.

But Sen. Michael Roberson, R-Las Vegas, expects a lot of Democrats and independents will vote for Republicans, especially on down-ticket races.

"I am very well aware of the registration figures," Roberson said. "Our financial advantage will help put us over the top. All these races will be close, but we have quality candidates."

The Senate already has a $1 million race in Reno's District 18. Republican Greg Brower has raised $621,542 and spent $531,182, compared with Democrat Sheila Leslie's $435,900 in contributions and $447,026 in expenditures.

While the Republicans have the money, the Democrats have the votes, with the party holding a 90,000 statewide registered voter advantage. They have nearly a 5,000 registered voter lead in District 6, 4,500 in District 9 and 3,500 in District 5.

District 18 was a predominantly Republican district in central Nevada, but because of redistricting, it's now a northwest Las Vegas seat with a narrow 400-registered Republican voter lead. And in Reno's District 15, another longtime Republican district, the GOP lead is just 900 votes.

The money battles also are important because Democrats now hold a narrow majority of 11 Senate seats while Republicans have 10.

Because districts 5 and 6 already are Democratic seats, that party must pick up districts 9, 18 and 15 to gain a veto-proof, two-thirds majority.

Republicans would have to retain those three districts and pick up either district 5 or 6 to become the majority party in the Senate.

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.