Micah Roberts’ NASCAR Sprint Cup driver ratings

Kasey Kahne hasn’t won a race this year, he’s leaving his current team at the end of the season and his chances of making the Chase for the Championship with two races remaining are slim, at best. He's 136 points out of the 12th and final position, but despite all that he looks like a pretty good candidate to win Sunday night’s race in Atlanta.

Topping the list of what makes Kahne one to watch Sunday is how dominant he was during Saturday’s first practice where he was 1.01 mph faster than the second-fastest driver. Kahne’s top speed wasn’t just one fast single lap, either, as he ran high within all the leaders on fastest average speeds in five-, 10- and 15-lap increments and with overall average times while running his 57 laps during the two-hour session.
 
When factoring how fast his car is for this race along with his history on this track, the scales tilt in his favor even more. His last win on any track came in this race last year, and he followed that up with a fourth on the track back in the spring. In 12 career races, Kahne has two wins and four other top-five finishes at Atlanta.
 
Delving even deeper into Kahne’s resume on similar tracks this season, it’s easy to see that regardless of what his practice speeds were Saturday he’d be considered a contender to win. There have been five races run this season on 1.5-mile tracks — including Atlanta’s — and Kahne is the only driver to have finished within the top 12, which equally shows his consistency as a driver and the performance of his team on this type of track.
 
Taking a driver like Kahne who hasn’t won a race all season may be tough for some, so here are some of the other top contenders to win Sunday.
 
We begin with Las Vegas native Kurt Busch, who won this race in the spring. Busch has three career wins on the track and was second-fastest during the first practice session. He also is the only driver to have won multiple races on 1.5-mile tracks this season, having done so on Atlanta’s sister track of Charlotte. For good measure, Busch also won the non-points all-star race at Charlotte, a week before winning the Coca-Cola 600. The only negative that can be found with Busch this week is that he didn’t bring either one of his winning cars for this week, opting to save those for the Chase races. Instead, Busch brought his June Pocono chassis that finished sixth.
 
If looking for a driver who brought a chassis that gives everyone on the team confidence, it’s Greg Biffle. He’s using the car that nearly won at the Brickyard and then followed it up a week later at Pocono with his only victory of the year. He was seventh-fastest in the all-important first session while in race setup mode and 10th overall in the final practice while running in qualifying trim.
 
Biffle’s got company within the Roush stable once again as the entire team seems to be rapidly getting acclimated to the new FR-9 Ford engines. Matt Kenseth was sixth in the early session while David Ragan and Carl Edwards both were in the top four of final practice. Kenseth finished runner-up in the spring race while Edwards is a three-time Atlanta winner; each will be driving brand new chassis this week.
 
A driver who was an early candidate to win this week — like Kahne — before practice began was Kevin Harvick because of all the credentials that go with the car he’s driving. Before winning at Michigan three weeks ago, this car had finished runner-up at Indy and Fontana earlier this year. At the tail end of last season, when the Childress team started turning things around, this exact chassis also finished fifth at Texas and third at Miami. Needless to say, the car has a lot of medals. However, after both practices — 28th in the first and 41st in the final — Harvick doesn’t look as impressive as he did on paper Friday.
 
If looking to discount Harvick, don’t, because he’s played this 'possum game before, and, on this type of tracks, only Kahne stands out as more consistent on the 2010 season. On the four 1.5-mile sister tracks of Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta and Las Vegas, Harvick has finished within the top 11 of each with a best of runner-up at Las Vegas. There may appear to be better candidates to win, but Harvick can be expected to be near a top-five finish despite what his practice said.
 
The Stewart-Haas duo of Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart both look better in practice than they have all season on this type of tracks. Newman has managed only a ninth at Charlotte while Stewart modestly comes in with top 10s at Las Vegas and Chicago, but they look like they have things all figured out just in time for the Chase where five of the 10 races are on 1.5-mile tracks. In the first session, both were quick with stellar average lap speeds and, in the final session, Newman was fastest overall.
 
Newman is sitting 118 points out of the final position and will need not just a good run to close the gap heading into Richmond but bonus points of leading the race and possibly winning with hopes of a bad-luck hiccup occurring by 12th-place Clint Bowyer. The largest lead overcome to make the Chase with two races remaining was 90 points in 2006 by Kahne.
 
Denny Hamlin had a great first practice with the best average lap times. Hamlin has been slumping for the last two months but should be able to get a top-five finish this week. On the similar track of Texas, Hamlin captured a win; he also finished eighth at Chicago, the last 1.5-mile track raced on. Starting from the pole this week gives him a head-start to winning, based on track history. One of the more interesting side notes regarding Atlanta Motor Speedway’s history is that 80 of 102 winners all-time have started from within the top 10.
 
On a somber note — with a bugle playing “taps” in the background — this week's race signals another in NASCAR’s race toward the future as they continue to discard the tradition and roots of the sport. Sunday’s race will be the last time Atlanta will hold two annual races, ending a tradition that began in 1960.
 
Progress and expansion is inevitable, but it’s hard watching great racetracks like Rockingham run completely off the schedule, the prestige of Darlington on Labor Day missing and Atlanta losing one of their dates while more cookie-cutter tracks get races.
 
        
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 

Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Emory Healthcare 500
Atlanta Motor Speedway
Sunday, Sept. 5, 2010 — 4:46 p.m. PDT
 
Rating   Driver                 Odds   Practice 1  Practice 2  Qualifying  Spring Results*
1. Kasey Kahne               10/1          1st             6th               10th              4th
His win in this 2009 race was his last to date; two wins and four other top-fives in 12 starts.
2. Kurt Busch                     8/1          2nd           24th              11th              1st
Three-time Atlanta winner including this spring; using sixth-place Pocono chassis this week.
3. Greg Biffle                     12/1          7th           10th              15th              8th
Using same stout chassis that finished third at Indy and won the following week at Indy.
4. Denny Hamlin              12/1          5th            14th              1st               21st
Best average lap times during first practice; won on the similar track of Texas in April.
5. Ryan Newman             40/1          9th             1st                2nd             17th
Practiced the best he has all season prior to a race; had the best 10-lap average speeds.
6. Carl Edwards                12/1        22nd           2nd               4th              39th
Three-time Atlanta winner; runner-up at last 1.5-mile track run on at Chicago. New car this week.
7. Matt Kenseth                 18/1          6th            28th              29th             2nd
Eight Atlanta top-five finishes including runner-up in the spring; using new chassis this week.
8. Tony Stewart                 12/1          8th             9th                5th              13th 
Two time Atlanta winner; will be using same car that sat on the pole finishing second at Pocono.
9. Kyle Busch                    10/1         19th           21st               3rd               25th
2008 Atlanta winner; finished third at similar tracks of Texas and Charlotte earlier this year.
10. Jimmie Johnson          6/1          15th             7th                7th               12th
Nothing stellar in practice; three-time Atlanta winner with a 10.8 average finish in 18 starts.
* Race results from March 7 Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta
Note: There were only two scheduled practices Saturday, followed by qualifying. The first practice in race trim was the more important of the two.             
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former Race and Sports Book Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He currently writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7Gmail.com.
 
DRIVER QUOTES
 
KASEY KAHNE ON HOW HE FEELS ABOUT ATLANTA LOSING ONE OF THEIR CUP DATES: "Yeah, I wish we could race at Atlanta more than twice. For me, it’s been my favorite track since I came into NASCAR. So it’s a little disappointing not going there. At the same time, NASCAR is doing what makes the most sense for the fans and the people, the viewers and things like that. So I think it’s fine, you know. I think the Labor Day race is a perfect time for the Atlanta race. We found that out last year. I think it was a great move putting that race on Labor Day. Hopefully when it’s just one race, it will be even bigger and better and it will last for a long time. The track, the way it is, I think it’s one of the best tracks we race at."

TONY STEWART ON QUALIFYING FIFTH SATURDAY IN ATLANTA: “Our car’s not as good as Ryan (Newman's). Well, actually probably as good as Ryan’s, I just don’t do as good of a job at qualifying as Ryan does. I am proud of this Office Depot/Old Spice Chevy. It is a pretty decent spot and we should get a good pit selection, pretty proud of these guys.”

RYAN NEWMAN ON WHETHER SUNDAY'S RACE IS AN ALL-OR-NOTHING SITUATION REGARDING THE CHASE: “All you can expect from me and our team is the best we can possibly do. We can’t expect as a team to go out there and make up points in two races that we didn’t accomplish in the last 24. That being said, we’ll do the best job we possibly can. We’ll go out and if we win the race, we win the race. If we finish in the top five in both of them, we still may not have enough points to make it into the Chase. So, either way, we are searching for our best finish, no different than any other race.”
 
GREG BIFFLE ON RACING AT ATLANTA: "Atlanta is a great track to race at because it’s so big and fast. We’re taking a car there that we’ve had some success with so, if our hard work pays off, it should be a good weekend for us. We had a decent run there in the spring and finished eighth. I think we can do better than that this time and hopefully lock in a Chase spot before we even get to Richmond. That is our goal this weekend. Well, that and putting the 3M Scotch Blue Ford into victory lane."
 
CARL EDWARDS ON RACING AT ATLANTA: “I can’t wait to go to Atlanta. It’s in Aflac’s backyard and the track is great. It’s multi-grooved, fast, fun and has a lot of history. I got my first win there back in 2005 and sure would like to get another one this weekend. We need a solid run to get locked into the Chase at Atlanta so we can go to Richmond next week and just focus on winning the race. We’ve got a sizable lead on 13th place which is what we need with just two races remaining before the Chase.”
 

ATLANTA ODDS & ENDS: EMORY HEALTHCARE 500
 
Compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services

History
• Originally called Atlanta International Raceway, the track was then a 1.5-mile paved speedway.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta was on July 31, 1960, won by Fireball Roberts from the pole.
• The track was re-measured to 1.522 miles in the spring of 1970.
• It was renamed Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1990.
• The track layout was reversed and the track was re-configured to 1.54 miles between the two races in 1997.
Notebook
• There have been 102 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Atlanta Speedway, two races per year except 1961, which had three.
• Fireball Roberts won the pole and race for the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in 1960.
• 44 drivers have won a pole, led by Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman, each with seven.
• Six of Newman’s seven poles came in consecutive races between March 2003 and October 2005.
• 42 drivers have won a race; 22 have won more than once, including Kurt Busch, who won two of the last three races.
• Dale Earnhardt scored nine victories, more than any other driver. Cale Yarborough is second, with seven.
• Bobby Labonte heads the list of active drivers with six victories. Labonte is tied with Richard Petty for third on the all-time win list at Atlanta.
• The Wood Brothers have 12 victories, more than any organization. They last won there in 1993 with Morgan Shepherd.
• 14 races have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Both races last season were won from the second starting position.
• 58 races at Atlanta have been won from the first five starting positions.
• Bobby Labonte won the 2001 fall race from the 39th starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Atlanta.
• There have been seven season sweeps, most recently by Jimmie Johnson in 2007.
• Two of the last three races had a margin of victory under a half second.
NASCAR in Georgia
• There have been 161 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Georgia.
• 169 NASCAR national series drivers all-time have their home state recorded as Georgia.
• There have been 14 race winners from Georgia in NASCAR’s three national series:

Atlanta Motor Speedway Data
Race # 25 of 36 (9-5-10)
Track Size: 1.54 miles
Race Length: 325 laps/500.5 miles
• Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
• Banking/Straights: 5 degrees
• Frontstretch: 2,332 feet
• Backstretch: 1,800 feet

Driver Rating at Atlanta 
Jimmie Johnson            109.5
Jeff Gordon                   101.8
Carl Edwards                99.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.          98.7
Tony Stewart                 98.7
Kurt Busch                    97.0
Matt Kenseth                 96.5
Greg Biffle                     95.0
Denny Hamlin                94.5
Kasey Kahne                 93.3
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Atlanta.
 
Qualifying/Race Data
2010 pole winner: Martin Truex Jr. (184.149 mph, 30.106 secs.)
2010 race winner: Kasey Kahne (134.033 mph, 9-6-09)
Track qualifying record: Geoffrey Bodine (197.478 mph, 28.074 secs.,
11-15-97)
Race record: Dale Earnhardt (163.633 mph, 11-16-97)
 
Estimated Pit Window: Every 48-52 laps, based on fuel mileage.

 
LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK ODDS TO WIN
 
EMORY HEALTHCARE 500
ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2010

JIMMIE JOHNSON 6
KYLE BUSCH10
JEFF GORDON 12
DENNY HAMLIN 12
JEFF BURTON 18
KEVIN HARVICK 8
MATT KENSETH 18
CARL EDWARDS 12
GREG BIFFLE 12
KURT BUSCH 8
MARK MARTIN 30
TONY STEWART 12
CLINT BOWYER 20
JUAN MONTOYA 12
KASEY KAHNE 10
JOEY LOGANO 35
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 30
JAMIE McMURRAY 20
DALE EARNHARDT JR 50
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 30
REED SORENSON 200
DAVID RAGAN 100
AJ ALLMENDINGER 75
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
SAM HORNISH JR 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 500
PAUL MENARD 200
SCOTT SPEED 500
BOBBY LABONTE 3000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 3000
FIELD 100