Porter, Titus in a dead heat

With just three days until election day, Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev. and his Democratic challenger Dina Titus are deadlocked in the battle for the 3rd Congressional District seat, according to a Review-Journal poll.

Each drew 44 percent of the votes of 400 likely voters who were asked their preference in telephone interviews Tuesday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.

But Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker, who conducted the poll for the newspaper, said he would not be surprised if Titus ekes out a narrow victory because many new voters could turn out to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

"This is an instance where the vote for Obama may be the difference," Coker said. "They probably will vote for Democrats down the ticket. It is like in 1980 when Ronald Reagan took out (President) Carter. He helped Republicans running for Congress."

In a separate poll, Mason-Dixon found Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., was maintaining his commanding 13 percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Jill Derby in the 2nd Congressional District race.

Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Heller received 50 percent of the vote of 400 people polled in the district, compared with 37 percent for Derby.

"He is in good shape," said Coker, predicting Heller will pick up independent and moderate Democrat support because he voted against the $700 billion Wall Street bailout. "That makes it harder for Derby to tie him to (President) Bush."

In a similar poll in early October, Heller also enjoyed a 13 percentage point lead.

Two years ago Heller beat Derby by 5 percentage points.

A Reno Gazette-Journal poll released Friday showed Heller with just a 47 percent to 44 percent lead over Derby.

Porter spokesman Matt Leffingwell said the three-term congressman is working hard to make sure he does not lose because of a heavy turnout for Obama.

"He is working day and night on the phone and in the streets to make sure his supporters get to the polls," Leffingwell said.

Leffingwell pointed out that Porter is in a dead heat even though Democrats have a 39,395 voter registration advantage over Republicans.

Two years ago Porter beat Democrat Tessa Hafen by 3,961 votes when the registration advantage for Democrats was only 1,807 voters.

The new poll shows Porter is being helped by independent voters, where he held a 45 percent to 38 percent edge over Titus.

Coker noted Titus is plagued by an unusually high unfavorable rating. The poll found 42 percent of respondents view her unfavorably, compared with 28 percent for Porter.

Porter's campaign has been running ads pointing out her votes for taxes during her 20-year legislative career.

Leffingwell said Porter may have picked up support from independents and others because he supported the bailout at a time when many Republicans voted no. His vote shows he is willing to work with the other party when it is in the country's best interest, he added.

But Titus spokesman Andrew Stoddard said the poll results show voters are turned off by Porter's "negative and misleading campaign." In a similar poll three weeks ago, Porter had a 3 percentage point lead.

"At a time when the district faces serious problems, Porter has offered no solutions," Stoddard added. "Dina's message of change is resonating with voters because she has real ideas to bring the change we need and take Nevada in a new direction."

Derby spokeswoman Kristen Cullen said thinks the results of the Review-Journal poll in the 2nd Congressional District race are off.

"I am not buying it," she said of Heller's continued large lead. "It is not reflective of other polls and our internal polling numbers. We see the trend going in the other direction."

Derby supporter Sheila Leslie, a Democratic assemblywoman from Reno, added that Washoe County has gone from a district where Republicans held a commanding registration advantage two years ago to one where Democrats now hold the lead. Consequently, she expects Derby will pick up additional votes there and win a narrow victory.

"I just don't see a lot of people voting Obama-Heller," Leslie added.

The Review-Journal poll shows Derby winning in Washoe County by a 46 percent to 42 percent margin, but losing to Heller 62 percent to 25 percent in the 15 rural counties.

Derby, a former state Democratic chairwoman, lost by 12,575 votes to Heller in 2006. Republicans then held a 48,346 advantage in voter registration in the district, which covers all of rural Nevada, Washoe County and the Mesquite and Nellis Air Force Base areas in Clark County.

Now the Republican advantage in the district is 21,338 voters. Even with their big lead, Heller spokesman Stewart "Mac" Bybee said the campaign is not taking anything for granted.

"We expected a tough race from the beginning and are working hard to get out the vote, regardless of the poll numbers. There are only a few days left and anything can happen."

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.