State superdelegates still straddling fence

With less than three weeks to go before the Pennsylvania primary, many Democratic superdelegates are being pressured to pick a candidate.

Sen. Barack Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, including the 13 he snatched here in Nevada during the Jan. 19 caucus -- even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but just 12 delegates.

News organization counts give Obama 1,417 pledged delegates compared to Clinton's 1,248 delegates. But she leads him slightly in the superdelegate count (251-218).

The candidate with the highest combined count of delegates and superdelegates will win the nomination. And if you consider the Democratic National Committee's rules for remaining primary contests, Clinton has less than a 10 percent chance to overcome Obama's lead, even if she performs well in Pennsylvania and Indiana.

Many are calling on the former first lady to quit the race, suggesting she cannot win without arm twisting the superdelegates. And polls do indicate the longer she and Obama compete for the nomination, the better Republican John McCain does. Before the GOP nomination was settled, both Obama and Clinton did well against McCain nationwide. Now he beats both.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been the highest-ranking Democrat to suggest that superdelegates should line up with the pledged delegates after each state and territory's primary contests are finished. While she has said the elections should all be held and respected, many believe her suggestion to be tacit support of Obama, since he has the pledged delegate lead and will be hard pressed to lose it.

But Nevada's superdelegates aren't taking Pelosi's bait.

Nevada has eight superdelegates assigned by the national committee to represent the state's party officials and congressional members. So far, half of the superdelegates here have pledged allegiance -- two with Clinton (Rep. Shelley Berkley and national committeewoman Dina Titus) and two with Obama (party vice chair Teresa Benitez-Thompson and national committeeman Steven Horsford).

The other four aren't tipping their hands in any way. To hear them talk, they could go to Denver uncommitted.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has pledged not to commit because he must work with both in the upper house. And since some are suggesting Clinton should seek his job should she lose the nomination, Reid definitely can't step into the primary fight.

So Reid continues to straddle the fence.

State party chairman Sam Lieberman also said he would have no comment on when he will commit, suggesting even committing at national party chief Howard Dean's recommended July 1 might put him in a predicament.

"I hope to be able to fully back someone by the time of the convention," Lieberman said. "Other than that, I have nothing to say about it."

The last two superdelegates assigned the Nevada delegation have yet to comment at all on their status.

Yvonne Atkinson Gates, a former Clark County commissioner under investigation for public corruption, hasn't even reported in to the state party this year. But Lieberman said it was still his understanding Atkinson Gates is assigned to be a superdelegate from Nevada. Atkinson Gates told the Reno Gazette-Journal that she's an at-large superdelegate. Either way, she has a vote.

In 2004, Atkinson Gates was the Democratic National Committee's Black Caucus chair. In that capacity she had a bigger role at the convention in Boston that year than even Reid.

At the time, Gates was exuberant about Obama, the convention's keynote speaker. She hosted a reception with him and talked him up even more than she did nominee John Kerry. It's not clear if she's definitely in Obama's camp, but if past is prologue, it would seem likely.

Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is also a superdelegate thanks to her leadership role in the Democratic Attorneys General Association. She has said she will remain neutral until after the state Democratic convention in late May. The only hint is even less subtle than Pelosi's statement.

An article on PolitickerNV.com about her recent discussion in Pahrump of protecting people from fraud included a statement from Cortez Masto about how she'll decide. "I want to make sure that we do put the right person in that can win, ultimately, and hopefully be in the White House," she told blogger Joseph Cooper.

Clinton's big push has been electability. She argues she's won in states Democrats need to win the general.

Cortez Masto also served as chief of staff to Gov. Bob Miller when Bill Clinton went from the Arkansas governor's mansion to the White House. Miller has endorsed Clinton.

For now at least, the fight for Nevada's superdelegates remains as razor-thin as the pledged split from Jan. 19. It's going to be weeks, if not months, before anything is clearer.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.