Analysts: Tiny tourism uptick might not be so bad after all

On the surface, it looked as if January was a rough month for Las Vegas tourism.

Total visitor volume was up a meager 0.9 percent from the same month in 2011, and citywide lodging occupancy declined 0.7 percent.

But 3.15 million tourists came to Las Vegas in January.

Though small, the increase in the monthly Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority visitor count marks the 23rd consecutive gain in prior-year comparisons. And on closer inspection, those tiny increases in total visitation might not be so bad after all.

Analysts from Union Gaming Research said 2011's strength in total visitation and air traffic -- year-end, both were up 4.3 percent -- support the concept that the Strip is on pace for unprecedented occupancy and higher room rates in 2012 and beyond.

"While 1 percent is a small number, it is still a fantastic number," said Scott Russell, senior research manager for the authority. "We continue to see growth every month. As you continue to climb, those percentages are going to get lower and lower. These numbers are still a good thing."

Like total visitation, January's hotel occupancy rose 0.4 percent while motel occupancy declined by 8.5 percent. Russell explained that a small inventory of motel rooms citywide -- 15,600 -- causes large fluctuations each time there's an increase or decrease.

Weekend stays in January fell by 3.5 percent from 2011's numbers, and midweek occupancy rose 0.7 percent. These numbers probably are due to the International Consumer Electronics Show taking place during weekdays in 2012. In 2011 the show included a weekend.

Even with the falling percentages in weekend and motel stays, the average daily room rate rose 6.2 percent, to $113.82 a night from $107.22 in January 2011. Las Vegas had 3.66 million occupied hotel-room nights in January, 0.6 percent more than a year ago.

Although January was a big month for Las Vegas in terms of trade shows -- CES, the Shooting, Hunting and Outdoors Trade Show and the AVN Adult Entertainment Expo all were here -- convention attendance in January was down a huge 12.6 percent from 615,854 in 2011, to 538,552 in 2012.

The travel board notes that the World Market Center's winter show, with an estimated attendance of 50,000, moved to February this year. The Redken Laboratories trade show, with 10,000 attendees, helped boost last January's total, but it's held in Las Vegas only every other January.

"Fluctuations are just the nature of the beast," Russell said.

The average daily number of vehicles coming into Las Vegas showed a 0.4 percent decrease in January, from 88,009 a year ago to 87,692 in 2012. The number coming from Southern California on Interstate 15, though, was up 8.6 percent.

Elsewhere in Clark County, the number of Laughlin visitors fell 8.9 percent, while Mesquite visitation was up 0.7 percent.

Contact reporter Laura Carroll at lcarroll@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4588.